Monday, February 13, 2012


Thanks to Friday's selloff, the week past was basically "unch". But worry clouds still abound. Indicators such as McClellan Oscillator, NYSE cum.A/D, and VIX came off extremes, while others cause concern: CEO Insider (legal) selling was a whopping 55:1; NASD to NYSE Volume was a record 2.51.One Technician on TV last week advised using Bollinger Bands on this ratio. NYSE New Lows for the week were only 15, versus 374 NHs.
Newsletter Bulls climbed higher, while the AAII Bears dropped from 25% to 20%. Bullish % is now 83% - only 5 points off its multi-year high. A reader scooped Barron's to tell me the Baltic Dry Index, which has been posting new lows lately was apparently caused by overbuilding of ships, not the global economy signal, which should be corrected shortly.
Here are the numbers:

2/10/2012 2/3/2012
Indices: DJIA  12801 12862
  NAZ  2903 2905

SPX  1342 1344
NASD/NYSE WklyVolume (Bshs). 9.3/3.7 9.6/4.4
nasd/nyse Specul.Ratio hi=bullish 2.51 2.18
Sentiment: put/call-CBOE  60 60
Barron's VIX>50-alltmlow=8.8 20.8 17.1

Advance/Dec-NYSE.. 1254/1900 2496/665

Weekly Net: -646 1831

     Cumulative: 131921 132567
Weekly  NYSE hi/low 374/15 526/32
New Hi's/Low's Nasdaq h/l 263/35 341/39
McClellan  Oscillator -17 57
McClellan Sum .+750/-1000 1325 1236
Newsletter Inv.Intel -Bull:tues 52.1 48.9
Surveys Bear:-5yrs 28.7 29.8

AAII  -Bull :wed. 51.6 43.8

Bear  20.2 25.1
COT:Change w/w large/small (net)k (13)/41 (12)/42
CEOinsider selling 55:1 26:1
BalticDryIndex GlobalEcon 695 651
3-box rev Bullish%-  83 82
US equity -ICI Fund Flows 1 wk lag (1.8B)
MMF flows Change in $B (.8B) (21B)
MargDebt- top (300M) monthly OCT.  
ETF:Eqty/Int'l/Bond  million$$ OCT.

2-yr Tsy Yield: Inflation 0.28% 0.24%
Euro futures 1 yr.offset-CommHedg 4.97M 4.89

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