So far in the last ten years we have not seen one. Barron's Cover story has a nice chart of how stock Crashes involve Recessions, usually precede the "R" by a year or so, and 5 of the last 6 since 1970 were just after the 0.
As for now, both Technical and Fundamental (Quant) signals are still Bullish, but the next 3-4 weeks could see a single-digit Correction before a final leg up into next year. Another conclusive signal to watch for in a R is the Flat Yield curve, where short term rates - 2-year and 3-month Treasurys (as well as the Fed Funds) are higher than the 10-year Tsy. (backwardation in futures lingo).
Last week saw Volume starting to pick up again as the Nasdaq made a new high ; the McClellan Oscillator (advances v. decline formula) gave a sell signal Friday at +46 -providential. Finally, MMFs (money markets) Flows reversed bigtime -see below:
| Date | 9/1/2017 | 8/25/2017 | |
| Indices: | DJIA | 21987 | 21813 |
| NAZ | 6435nh | 6265 | |
| SPX | 2476 | 2443 | |
| WklyVolume (Bshs). | naz/ny…. | 8.2/3.6 | 7.6/3.5 |
| Specul.Ratio hi=bullish | 2.28 | 2.17 | |
| Sentiment: | put/call-CBOE | 57 | 61 |
| VIX>50-alltmlow=8.8 | 10.1 | 11.3 | |
| DeltaMSI-50% | MAC crossover | 51 | 48 |
| Advance/Dec-NYSE.. | 2210/867 | 2126/944 | |
| Weekly Net: | 1343 | 1182 | |
| Cumulative: | 180146nh | 178803 | |
| Weekly | NYSE hi/low… | 285/115 | 207/203 |
| New Hi's/Low's | Nasdaq h/l | 302/133 | 152/222 |
| McClellan | Oscillator | 46 | 8 |
| McClellanSum | .+750/-1000 | 267 | 172 |
| Newsletter | Inv.Intel -Bull | 49.5 | 48.1 |
| Surveys-Tues | Bear:-5yrs | 19.1 | 18.3 |
| Wed. | AAII -Bull | 25 | 28.1 |
| Bear | 39.9 | 38.3 | |
| US$-WSJ | 92.8 | 92.5 | |
| 3-box rev | Bullish%- | 66 | 65 |
| US equity -ICI | Fund Flows | weeklate | (4.7B) |
| MMF flows | Change in $B | (20B) | 29,4B |
| MargDebt- top (300M) | monthly | JULY: | 550B |
| 10-yr Tsy yield | hi= stock buying | 2.17 | 2.17 |
| 2-yr Tsy Yield: Inflation | 1.35 | 1.33 | |
| TIP (ETF) | Inflation | 114.2 | 114.1 |
With record numbers of dollars coming out of Money Market Funds, mostly into the crowded trade of short term bonds, anyone who has a minimal knowledge of covered call options and/or an interest in hedging stock market exposure might want to check out: brentleonard.com for an alternative strategy that is low-risk as well as highly rewarding. For those of you wanting more details and actual trading results, a new book is available for $14.95 at Amazon.com: Zero (IN)Tolerance
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