Monday, January 23, 2012


Interesting week for a rather calm stock market: the S&P500 broke up through the 1300 level to a double top from last July - Larry McMillan states that it is 3 Std Deviations above its 20-day MA, and just as Oct and Apr.'11 and Feb.'07, the OEX put/call Volume ratio was 2:1. The Baltic Dry Index broke below 1000 for the first time in 3 years, a global economic indicator. My cumulative A/D total broke to a new all-time high (overbought); the NASD to NYSE Volume (speculative) also hit a new high.US equity fund flows reversed to inflows for the first time since April 22 of last year -a multi-year high. As seen below, most indicators are Bearish FOR the markets.

1/20/2012 1/13/2012
Indices: DJIA  12720 ..12422
  NAZ  2786 ..2710

SPX  1315 1289
NASD/NYSE WklyVolume (Bshs) 3.3/7.8 3.9/8.7
nasd/nyse Specul.Ratio hi=bullish 2.36 2.23
Sentiment: put/call-CBOE  52 59
Barron's VIX>50-alltmlow=8.8 18.3 20.9

Advance/Dec-NYSE 2414/730 2161/988

Weekly Net: 1684 1173

     Cumulative: 129390 127706
Weekly  NYSE hi/low 292/36 277/50
New Hi's/Low's Nasdaq h/l 166/43 153/89
McClellan  Oscillator 52 26
McClellan Sum .+750/-1000 810 618
Newsletter Inv.Intel -Bull:tues 50 51.1
Surveys Bear:-5yrs 29.8 29.8

AAII  -Bull :wed. 47.2 49.1

Bear  23.6 17.2
COT:Change w/w large/small (net)k (4)/19 (9)/21
CEOinsider selling 25:1 20:1
BalticDryIndex GlobalEcon 862 1105
3-box rev Bullish%-  78 73
US equity -ICI Fund Flows 1 wk lag .75B
MMF flows Change in $B (13B) 11B
MargDebt- top (300M) monthly OCT.

ETF:Eqty/Int'l/Bond  million$$ OCT.

2-yr Tsy Yield: Inflation 0.25% 0.23%
Euro futures 1 yr.offset-CommHedg 4.89M 4.96M

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