FACE THE BARRON'S WASTE

I've always been a big fan of Barron's weekly mag - charts, data, great columnists - what is virtually useless is their stock picks - either from "journalists" or chosen "expert analysts". Even worse than their cartoons!
What prompts me to look at this is my recent (infrequent) venture into one of these picks, as usual should rise 20%, based on Fundamental figuring: Seagate. Luckily I did a DITM covered call on it with a high dividend, because 4 days later it cratered from $35 to 25; it is still going down past 18.
I also checked a Dec. 7 (a date that will go down in history!!) of their best 10 stocks to buy in 2016. At present, 5 months hence, 8 of the 10 are negative, with the S&P about the same level! They even show on their website their Bull and Bear picks for each year - basically a coin flip average.

As for market calls themselves, more and more esteemed veterans are getting quite Bearish about the near future - Bigtime. Druckenmiller, Icahn, et.al. are sounding like Ravi Batra, Bob Prechter, Harry Dent. Could get ugly into year end.

However, so far Sentiment Indicators are not showing much either way. Bull/Bear Surveys are mixed ; My new Delta MSI and the McClellan Summation both peaked at high levels, like the A/D line, the CEO Insider Selling line, and the Bullish % lines. Weekly Mutual fund equity flows have only been positive twice in 2016. On TV TrimTabs Biderman says money flows show only stock buybacks are driving the market (along with the FED).

Here are the numbers:

	5/6/2016	4/29/2016
DJIA	17740	17773
NAZ	4736	4775
SPX	2057	2065
naz/ny….	.       9.5/5.0	…...9.8/5.1
	1.9	1.92
put/call-CBOE	81	68
	14.7	15.7
MAC crossover	79%	85%
	1413/1759	1639/1528
	-346	111
	165953	166299
NYSE hi/low…	365/64	270/25
Nasdaq h/l	155/168	207/93
Oscillator	-30	-9
.+750/-1000	1064.0	1215.0
Inv.Intel -Bull	40.2	44.3
Bear:-5yrs	21.7	20.6
AAII  -Bull	22.3	27.4
Bear	30.3	28.6
	93.8	93
Bullish%-	72	76
Fund Flows	WeekLate	(3.0B)
Change in $B	1.7B	10.3B
monthly		446B
	0.73%	0.78%
Inflation	114.7	114.9

With record numbers of dollars coming out of Money Market Funds, mostly into the crowded trade of short term bonds, anyone who has a minimal knowledge of covered call options and/or an interest in hedging stock market exposure might want to check out: brentleonard.com for an alternative strategy that is low-risk as well as highly rewarding. For those of you wanting more details and actual trading results, a new book is available for $14.95 at Amazon.com: Zero (IN)Tolerance

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FACE THE BARRON'S WASTE

OOPS!!!

Maybe investors should go away in May, but this year I was unable to do so, thanks to a slight case if SHINGLES ( I don't even own a House!!) that kept me from travelling this year due to possible contagion. However, signs of market weakness abound these days:

Breaking News: In today's TV interview, Charles Biderman,  of TrimTabs in Santa Rosa, probably the best data analyzer next to Ned Davis and Bespoke Group, announced they were 100% in Cash, just as in early 2016. His reason is that in recent months $$ flows into equities by retail and institutions were net ZERO, so all market movers came from corporate stock Buybacks, although that has dropped as of March.
Another startling fact I observed in Barron's this weekend was the correlation (albeit small sampling of 4) between their Insider Selling peaks and the SPX tops over the past year -May, July, October, now. The Option column states that institutions bought 99,000 SPX calls to hedge VIX calls (against a market decline, and another 330,000 calls as well).
Sentiment Indicators last week showed a high and toppy Delta MSI rising stock level of 85 (same as last week) and a high Bullish%; the McClellan Summation is at a high level over 1200; and the Inv. Intell. Bull to Bear ratio is wildly Bullish, by a 24 point margin (complacency).
Whether to Sell in May or hedge and ride it out is the quandary. One way might be to do a Buy/Write on the VIX ETF - UVXY, as the Implied Volatility on the calls are Huge - 150 (lots of premium to sell)..
Here are the numbers:

Date>		4/29/2016	4/22/2016
Indices:	DJIA	17773	18003
	NAZ	4775	4906
	SPX	2065	2091
WklyVolume (Bshs).	naz/ny….	…...9.8/5.1	……..8.9/4.8
Specul.Ratio hi=bullish		1.92	1.85
Sentiment:	put/call-CBOE	68	69
VIX>50-alltmlow=8.8		15.7	13.2
DeltaMSI-50%	MAC crossover	85%	85%
Advance/Dec-NYSE..		1639/1528	2143/1037
Weekly Net:		111	1106
Cumulative:		166299	166188
Weekly	NYSE hi/low…	270/25	336/27
New Hi's/Low's	Nasdaq h/l	207/93	192/77
McClellan	Oscillator	-9	25
McClellanSum	.+750/-1000	1215.0	1168
Newsletter	Inv.Intel -Bull	44.3	47.4
Surveys-Tues	Bear:-5yrs	20.6	21.7
Wed.	AAII  -Bull	27.4	33.4
	Bear	28.6	23.9
US$-WSJ		93	95.1
3-box rev	Bullish%-	76	78
US equity -ICI	Fund Flows	weekLate	(4.2B)
MMF flows	Change in $B	10.3B	(32.9B)
MargDebt- top (300M)	monthly	446B
2-yr Tsy Yield: Inflation		0.78%	0.82%
TIP (ETF)	Inflation	114.9	113.8

With record numbers of dollars coming out of Money Market Funds, mostly into the crowded trade of short term bonds, anyone who has a minimal knowledge of covered call options and/or an interest in hedging stock market exposure might want to check out: brentleonard.com for an alternative strategy that is low-risk as well as highly rewarding. For those of you wanting more details and actual trading results, a new book is available for $14.95 at Amazon.com: Zero (IN)Tolerance

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OOPS!!!

SELL IN MAY AND GO AWAY

Per usual, I need to head for the hills of Lake Tahoe and Redding, CA to family bond and celebrate my birthdate - Friday the 13th - with my brother's ma-in-law's 96th. Being data dependent, blogs will not be forthcoming for awhile.

Near term and all time peaks abound : the DJIA and SPX approaching last year's highs; Barron's chart of Insider Transaction spiking as with previous tops in April '15, July and Oct.

Breadth has been very strong lately - Advance/Declines (cumulative near tops); stocks on BUY signals -Bullish % and Delta MSI;    VIX with a 13 handle (complacency). NYSE new highs to lows beat the 10:1 ratio last week; even newsletter surveys, reporting midweek, are wildly Bullish - a contrary indicator.
Here are the numbers:

Date>	2016	4/22/2016	4/15/2016
Indices:	DJIA	18003	17897
	NAZ	4906	4938
	SPX	2091	2080
WklyVolume (Bshs).	naz/ny….	8.9/4.8	8.5/4.8
Specul.Ratio hi=bullish		1.85	1.77
Sentiment:	put/call-CBOE	69	65
VIX>50-alltmlow=8.8		13.2	13.6
DeltaMSI-50%	MAC crossover	85%	n/a
Advance/Dec-NYSE..		2143/1037	2503/664
Weekly Net:		1106	1839
Cumulative:		166188	165082
Weekly	NYSE hi/low…	336/27	276/20
New Hi's/Low's	Nasdaq h/l	192/77	140/74
McClellan	Oscillator	25	16
McClellanSum	.+750/-1000	1168	1020
Newsletter	Inv.Intel -Bull	47.4	41.2
Surveys-Tues	Bear:-5yrs	21.7	27.8
Wed.	AAII  -Bull	33.4	27.9
	Bear	23.9	24.9
US$-WSJ		95.1	94.7
3-box rev	Bullish%-	78	77
US equity -ICI	Fund Flows	weekLate	(4.3B)
MMF flows	Change in $B	(32.9B)	(7.7B)
MargDebt- top (300M)	monthly
2-yr Tsy Yield: Inflation		0.82%	0.74%
TIP (ETF)	Inflation	113.8	114.3

With record numbers of dollars coming out of Money Market Funds, mostly into the crowded trade of short term bonds, anyone who has a minimal knowledge of covered call options and/or an interest in hedging stock market exposure might want to check out: brentleonard.com for an alternative strategy that is low-risk as well as highly rewarding. For those of you wanting more details and actual trading results, a new book is available for $14.95 at Amazon.com: Zero (IN)Tolerance

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SELL IN MAY AND GO AWAY

V FOR VOLATILITY

Other than the Warriors' expected victory, the high point of  this past weekend was a 2-hour class/tutorial (free) at the S F Options Group meetup at Fort Mason by Richard Lehman on Options and Volatility - Outstanding - I even bought his and Larry McMillan's book: Options For Volatile Markets! What I learned most was to abandon my hedging positions of TVIX (which has no options, and has broken down below its longterm Support) in favor of UVXY which, just as NUGT for gold miners, has HUGE IV or Implied Volatility - which is the "juice" one sells to make big bucks.

It was great to see old friends again, after my recoop time from knee replacements, and even got an invite to give my DITM (covered call) talk to the Silicon Valley Option Group sometime this summer.  Although I discovered this income strategy (in a zero interest rate world) back in 2009, it seems to me more timely now, as the Bull market wears down, and rates seem to be destined to stay low ( even negative??).

Last week's Sentiment Indicators were very similar to the previous week's dramatic one, with the McClellan Summation (of the weekly Oscillator) again breaching the 1,000 mark - Positive Advances/Declines. If breadth continues strong it can (eventually) break up through the indices all-time highs. DJIA 18,351 (today 17.968); S&P 500 2,134 (today 2089).
Here are today's numbers:

Date>	2016	4/15/2016	4/8/2016
Indices:	DJIA	17897	17576
	NAZ	4938	4850
	SPX	2080	2047
WklyVolume (Bshs).	naz/ny….	8.5/4.8	8.6/4.5
Specul.Ratio hi=bullish		1.77	1.97
Sentiment:	put/call-CBOE	65	68
VIX>50-alltmlow=8.8		13.6	15.4
DeltaMSI-50%	MAC crossover	n/a	74%
Advance/Dec-NYSE..		2503/664	1225/1958
Weekly Net:		1839	-733
Cumulative:		165082	163243
Weekly	NYSE hi/low…	276/20	277/47
New Hi's/Low's	Nasdaq h/l	140/74	126/91
McClellan	Oscillator	16	-17
McClellanSum	.+750/-1000	1020	940
Newsletter	Inv.Intel -Bull	41.2	45.4
Surveys-Tues	Bear:-5yrs	27.8	27.8
Wed.	AAII  -Bull	27.9	32.2
	Bear	24.9	21.5
US$-WSJ		94.7	94.2
3-box rev	Bullish%-	77	76
US equity -ICI	Fund Flows	weekLate	(5.3B)
MMF flows	Change in $B	(7.7B)	(26.7B)
MargDebt- top (300M)	monthly
2-yr Tsy Yield: Inflation		0.74%	0.70%
TIP (ETF)	Inflation	114.3	116

With record numbers of dollars coming out of Money Market Funds, mostly into the crowded trade of short term bonds, anyone who has a minimal knowledge of covered call options and/or an interest in hedging stock market exposure might want to check out: brentleonard.com for an alternative strategy that is low-risk as well as highly rewarding. For those of you wanting more details and actual trading results, a new book is available for $14.95 at Amazon.com: Zero (IN)Tolerance

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V FOR VOLATILITY

ETFs - WTF?

This week's Barron's financial magazine profiled the best of Dividend ETFs and Schwab's came out on TOP! I've been recommending this one-  SCHD - for my family and those who are not zoned in on the investment scene. Regular contributions benefit from compound interest - the 8th Wonder of the World - especially if the market drops (buying more shares!).

Also #1 on the list of first quarter ETFs/stocks: the NUGT, which is 3 X the DGX ETF, or gold miner stocks. It was up 140% and is still rising. The huge Volatility cuts both ways - Up and Down, so it is quite dangerous, if not hedged . However, using my DITM (deep-in-the-money covered calls) lessens the risk.

Finally, another highly recommended choice - CEFs or Closed-End Funds (munis) -which  I've owned and recommended for years, are both lucrative and relatively safe.

All of these could unwind (temporarily) When (not If) the stock market tanks - which is why I recommend another 2 X ETF - the TVIX, which "should" rise dramatically as stocks tank. Handle with Care!
Last week's extreme Sentiment Indicators were again mixed, with the 2-year Treas. dropping while the TIP hit new recent highs; the dollar is dropping - helping both gold and U S stocks overseas.
Here are the numbers:

Date>	2016	4/8/2016	4/1/2016
Indices:	DJIA	17576	17792
	NAZ	4850	4914
	SPX	2047	2072
WklyVolume (Bshs).	naz/ny….	8.6/4.5	8.4/4.5
Specul.Ratio hi=bullish		1.97	1.87
Sentiment:	put/call-CBOE	68	64
VIX>50-alltmlow=8.8		15.4	13.1
DeltaMSI-50%	MAC crossover	74%	71%
Advance/Dec-NYSE..		1225/1958	2299/889
Weekly Net:		-733	1410
Cumulative:		163243	163976
Weekly	NYSE hi/low…	277/47	376/31
New Hi's/Low's	Nasdaq h/l	126/91	159/105
McClellan	Oscillator	-17	13
McClellanSum	.+750/-1000	940	1075
Newsletter	Inv.Intel -Bull	45.4	43.3
Surveys-Tues	Bear:-5yrs	27.8	28.9
Wed.	AAII  -Bull	32.2	27.2
	Bear	21.5	25.8
US$-WSJ		94.2	94.6
3-box rev	Bullish%-	76	79
US equity -ICI	Fund Flows	weekLate	(3.7B)
MMF flows	Change in $B	(26.7B)	13.9B
MargDebt- top (300M)	monthly		436B
2-yr Tsy Yield: Inflation		0.70%	0.74%
TIP (ETF)	Inflation	116	114.7

With record numbers of dollars coming out of Money Market Funds, mostly into the crowded trade of short term bonds, anyone who has a minimal knowledge of covered call options and/or an interest in hedging stock market exposure might want to check out: brentleonard.com for an alternative strategy that is low-risk as well as highly rewarding. For those of you wanting more details and actual trading results, a new book is available for $14.95 at Amazon.com: Zero (IN)Tolerance

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ETFs - WTF?

T For TWO

Previously mentioned TVIX for hedging still looks like a viable option, although it has never been this low (barely breaking below $5). It echoes the VIX 2-fold, which is also weak recently, but the ETN, based on expiring futures, usually does lose money y/y. However, based on chart activity, it should scream up if the market tanks - last Sept. it hit $20 - 4 X its previous average level.

Sentiment Indicators are anything but boring these days:  The TIP (Inflation indicator) hit a recent high at 114, while the 2-year Treas. dropped a bunch - .89% to .74%. MMF flows went from minus $15B to plus $14B in a wild swing. The McClellan Summation Index came off a 1000 level ( a rara avis); the Bullish % - stocks on a BUY signal are at a high 79%, while the $ weakens.
Finally, the Bullish signs include my newly acquired Delta MSI from Barron's - stocks breaking up through their 50- MA; and the NYSE Hi to Los were more than 10:1...

Here are the numbers:

Date>	2016	4/1/2016	3/24/16*
Indices:	DJIA	17792	17515
	NAZ	4914	4773
	SPX	2072	2035
WklyVolume (Bshs).	naz/ny….	8.4/4.5	6.4/3.4*
Specul.Ratio hi=bullish		1.87	1.88
Sentiment:	put/call-CBOE	64	82
VIX>50-alltmlow=8.8		13.1	14.7
DeltaMSI-50%	MAC crossover	71%	69%
Advance/Dec-NYSE..		2299/889	1055/2113
Weekly Net:		1410	-1058
Cumulative:		163976	162566
Weekly	NYSE hi/low…	376/31	166/27
New Hi's/Low's	Nasdaq h/l	159/105	101/96
McClellan	Oscillator	13	-5
McClellanSum	.+750/-1000	1075	990
Newsletter	Inv.Intel -Bull	43.3	47.4
Surveys-Tues	Bear:-5yrs	28.9	27
Wed.	AAII  -Bull	27.2	33.8
	Bear	25.8	23.7
US$-WSJ		94.6	96.1
3-box rev	Bullish%-	79	76
US equity -ICI	Fund Flows	weekLate	(2.1B)
MMF flows	Change in $B	13.9B	(14.8B)
MargDebt- top (300M)	monthly	436B	447B
2-yr Tsy Yield: Inflation		0.74%	0.89%
TIP (ETF)	Inflation	114.7	113.2

With record numbers of dollars coming out of Money Market Funds, mostly into the crowded trade of short term bonds, anyone who has a minimal knowledge of covered call options and/or an interest in hedging stock market exposure might want to check out: brentleonard.com for an alternative strategy that is low-risk as well as highly rewarding. For those of you wanting more details and actual trading results, a new book is available for $14.95 at Amazon.com: Zero (IN)Tolerance

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T For TWO