Monday, April 4, 2016


Previously mentioned TVIX for hedging still looks like a viable option, although it has never been this low (barely breaking below $5). It echoes the VIX 2-fold, which is also weak recently, but the ETN, based on expiring futures, usually does lose money y/y. However, based on chart activity, it should scream up if the market tanks - last Sept. it hit $20 - 4 X its previous average level.

Sentiment Indicators are anything but boring these days:  The TIP (Inflation indicator) hit a recent high at 114, while the 2-year Treas. dropped a bunch - .89% to .74%. MMF flows went from minus $15B to plus $14B in a wild swing. The McClellan Summation Index came off a 1000 level ( a rara avis); the Bullish % - stocks on a BUY signal are at a high 79%, while the $ weakens.
Finally, the Bullish signs include my newly acquired Delta MSI from Barron's - stocks breaking up through their 50- MA; and the NYSE Hi to Los were more than 10:1...

Here are the numbers:
Date> 2016 4/1/2016 3/24/16*
Indices: DJIA  17792 17515
  NAZ  4914 4773
SPX  2072 2035
WklyVolume (Bshs). naz/ny…. 8.4/4.5 6.4/3.4*
Specul.Ratio hi=bullish 1.87 1.88
Sentiment: put/call-CBOE  64 82
VIX>50-alltmlow=8.8 13.1 14.7
DeltaMSI-50% MAC crossover 71% 69%
Advance/Dec-NYSE.. 2299/889 1055/2113
Weekly Net: 1410 -1058
     Cumulative: 163976 162566
Weekly  NYSE hi/low… 376/31 166/27
New Hi's/Low's Nasdaq h/l 159/105 101/96
McClellan  Oscillator 13 -5
McClellanSum .+750/-1000 1075 990
Newsletter Inv.Intel -Bull 43.3 47.4
Surveys-Tues Bear:-5yrs 28.9 27
Wed. AAII  -Bull  27.2 33.8
Bear  25.8 23.7
US$-WSJ 94.6 96.1
3-box rev Bullish%-  79 76
US equity -ICI Fund Flows weekLate (2.1B)
MMF flows Change in $B 13.9B (14.8B)
MargDebt- top (300M) monthly  436B 447B
2-yr Tsy Yield: Inflation 0.74% 0.89%
TIP (ETF) Inflation 114.7 113.2

With record numbers of dollars coming out of Money Market Funds, mostly into the crowded trade of short term bonds, anyone who has a minimal knowledge of covered call options and/or an interest in hedging stock market exposure might want to check out: for an alternative strategy that is low-risk as well as highly rewarding. For those of you wanting more details and actual trading results, a new book is available for $14.95 at Zero (IN)Tolerance

Subscribe in a reader


No comments:

Post a Comment