Monday, May 2, 2016


Maybe investors should go away in May, but this year I was unable to do so, thanks to a slight case if SHINGLES ( I don't even own a House!!) that kept me from travelling this year due to possible contagion. However, signs of market weakness abound these days:

Breaking News: In today's TV interview, Charles Biderman,  of TrimTabs in Santa Rosa, probably the best data analyzer next to Ned Davis and Bespoke Group, announced they were 100% in Cash, just as in early 2016. His reason is that in recent months $$ flows into equities by retail and institutions were net ZERO, so all market movers came from corporate stock Buybacks, although that has dropped as of March.
Another startling fact I observed in Barron's this weekend was the correlation (albeit small sampling of 4) between their Insider Selling peaks and the SPX tops over the past year -May, July, October, now. The Option column states that institutions bought 99,000 SPX calls to hedge VIX calls (against a market decline, and another 330,000 calls as well).
Sentiment Indicators last week showed a high and toppy Delta MSI rising stock level of 85 (same as last week) and a high Bullish%; the McClellan Summation is at a high level over 1200; and the Inv. Intell. Bull to Bear ratio is wildly Bullish, by a 24 point margin (complacency).
Whether to Sell in May or hedge and ride it out is the quandary. One way might be to do a Buy/Write on the VIX ETF - UVXY, as the Implied Volatility on the calls are Huge - 150 (lots of premium to sell)..
Here are the numbers:
Date> 4/29/2016 4/22/2016
Indices: DJIA  17773 18003
NAZ  4775 4906
SPX  2065 2091
WklyVolume (Bshs). naz/ny…. …...9.8/5.1 ……..8.9/4.8
Specul.Ratio hi=bullish 1.92 1.85
Sentiment: put/call-CBOE  68 69
VIX>50-alltmlow=8.8 15.7 13.2
DeltaMSI-50% MAC crossover 85% 85%
Advance/Dec-NYSE.. 1639/1528 2143/1037
Weekly Net: 111 1106
     Cumulative: 166299 166188
Weekly  NYSE hi/low… 270/25 336/27
New Hi's/Low's Nasdaq h/l 207/93 192/77
McClellan  Oscillator -9 25
McClellanSum .+750/-1000 1215.0 1168
Newsletter Inv.Intel -Bull 44.3 47.4
Surveys-Tues Bear:-5yrs 20.6 21.7
Wed. AAII  -Bull  27.4 33.4
Bear  28.6 23.9
US$-WSJ 93 95.1
3-box rev Bullish%-  76 78
US equity -ICI Fund Flows weekLate (4.2B)
MMF flows Change in $B 10.3B (32.9B)
MargDebt- top (300M) monthly  446B
2-yr Tsy Yield: Inflation 0.78% 0.82%
TIP (ETF) Inflation 114.9 113.8

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