What prompts me to look at this is my recent (infrequent) venture into one of these picks, as usual should rise 20%, based on Fundamental figuring: Seagate. Luckily I did a DITM covered call on it with a high dividend, because 4 days later it cratered from $35 to 25; it is still going down past 18.
I also checked a Dec. 7 (a date that will go down in history!!) of their best 10 stocks to buy in 2016. At present, 5 months hence, 8 of the 10 are negative, with the S&P about the same level! They even show on their website their Bull and Bear picks for each year - basically a coin flip average.
As for market calls themselves, more and more esteemed veterans are getting quite Bearish about the near future - Bigtime. Druckenmiller, Icahn, et.al. are sounding like Ravi Batra, Bob Prechter, Harry Dent. Could get ugly into year end.
However, so far Sentiment Indicators are not showing much either way. Bull/Bear Surveys are mixed ; My new Delta MSI and the McClellan Summation both peaked at high levels, like the A/D line, the CEO Insider Selling line, and the Bullish % lines. Weekly Mutual fund equity flows have only been positive twice in 2016. On TV TrimTabs Biderman says money flows show only stock buybacks are driving the market (along with the FED).
Here are the numbers:
| 5/6/2016 | 4/29/2016 | |
| DJIA | 17740 | 17773 |
| NAZ | 4736 | 4775 |
| SPX | 2057 | 2065 |
| naz/ny…. | . 9.5/5.0 | …...9.8/5.1 |
| 1.9 | 1.92 | |
| put/call-CBOE | 81 | 68 |
| 14.7 | 15.7 | |
| MAC crossover | 79% | 85% |
| 1413/1759 | 1639/1528 | |
| -346 | 111 | |
| 165953 | 166299 | |
| NYSE hi/low… | 365/64 | 270/25 |
| Nasdaq h/l | 155/168 | 207/93 |
| Oscillator | -30 | -9 |
| .+750/-1000 | 1064.0 | 1215.0 |
| Inv.Intel -Bull | 40.2 | 44.3 |
| Bear:-5yrs | 21.7 | 20.6 |
| AAII -Bull | 22.3 | 27.4 |
| Bear | 30.3 | 28.6 |
| 93.8 | 93 | |
| Bullish%- | 72 | 76 |
| Fund Flows | WeekLate | (3.0B) |
| Change in $B | 1.7B | 10.3B |
| monthly | 446B | |
| 0.73% | 0.78% | |
| Inflation | 114.7 | 114.9 |
With record numbers of dollars coming out of Money Market Funds, mostly into the crowded trade of short term bonds, anyone who has a minimal knowledge of covered call options and/or an interest in hedging stock market exposure might want to check out: brentleonard.com for an alternative strategy that is low-risk as well as highly rewarding. For those of you wanting more details and actual trading results, a new book is available for $14.95 at Amazon.com: Zero (IN)Tolerance
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