Monday, March 6, 2017


In my day we used a different S*** word; investors in Snapchat may switch to the new one, if Barron's is correct and the stock gets cut in half. Looking at today's market - all my positions are in a Sea of Red (after a nice runup). Hopefully it is just Pause that Refreshes!
Barron's also notes that it is the Individual that is driving the market now (not a good sign), rather than Institutions. Bulls at II (Investors' Intelligence) have risen to a 4 to 1 ratio over Bears (see below), not seen since 1987- a year that will go down.....
 Prominent in last week's Sentiment/Breadth data was the rise (monthly) in Margin Interest to new highs, at 513B. As reported earlier, if/when a crash comes, higher rates will cost more to borrow as panickers and AI machines could cause a cascade of Selling, like 1987..
That said, Breadth and momentum still seems strong on Trump's promises.
Here are the numbers:

Date   3/3/2017 2/24/2017
Indices: DJIA  21005 20821
  NAZ  5870 5845
SPX  2383 2367
WklyVolume (Bshs). naz/ny…. 10.2/4.8 7.3/3.6
Specul.Ratio hi=bullish 2.13 2.03
Sentiment: put/call-CBOE  61 64
VIX>50-alltmlow=8.8 10.9 11.5
DeltaMSI-50% MAC crossover 66.7 71.9
Advance/Dec-NYSE.. 1438/1652 1763/1334
Weekly Net: -214 429
     Cumulative: 174993 175207
Weekly  NYSE hi/low… 474/75 449/41
New Hi's/Low's Nasdaq h/l 490/132 496/95
McClellan  Oscillator -22 2
McClellanSum .+750/-1000 768 812
Newsletter Inv.Intel -Bull 4:1.63.1 61.2
Surveys-Tues Bear:-5yrs 16.5 17.5
Wed. AAII  -Bull  37.9 38.5
Bear  35.4 32.1
US$-WSJ 101.3 101.1
3-box rev Bullish%-  79nh 77nh
US equity -ICI Fund Flows WeekLate 3.4B
MMF flows Change in $B (2B) 5.1B
MargDebt- top (300M) monthly  513Bnh 490B
10-yr Tsy yield hi= stock buying 2.5 2.3
2-yr Tsy Yield: Inflation 1.3 1.15
TIP (ETF) Inflation 114.1 114.9

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