Monday, March 20, 2017

Wearin' Of The Green

Stocks were basically green (UP), at least for the start of last week, only to sustain a slight hangover into the weekend.  Breadth did a major turnaround, from negative to positive; the McClellan Oscillator jumped from minus 61 to plus two. Still worrisome are the Bulls to Bears ( Inv. Intell.) and record margin interest, which could cost more as rates rise. Contrary to conventional wisdom, stocks to not fall as interest rates rise, at least at first - when they normalize, bond rates become competitive, especially when they overshoot, as they are wont to do.
Here are the numbers:

Date 3/17/2017 3/10/2017
Indices: DJIA  20914 20902
NAZ  5901 5861
SPX  2378 2372
WklyVolume (Bshs). naz/ny…. 10.0/5.5 9.2/4.2
Specul.Ratio hi=bullish 1.82 2.19
Sentiment: put/call-CBOE  66 62
VIX>50-alltmlow=8.8 11.3 11.7
DeltaMSI-50% MAC crossover 53 58.5
Advance/Dec-NYSE.. 2243/868 678/2426
Weekly Net: 1375 -1748
     Cumulative: 174620 173245
Weekly  NYSE hi/low… 305/139 162/169
New Hi's/Low's Nasdaq h/l 372/160 236/166
McClellan  Oscillator 2 -61
McClellanSum .+750/-1000 320 440
Newsletter Inv.Intel -Bull 53.4 57.7
Surveys-Tues Bear:-5yrs 17.5 17.3
Wed. AAII  -Bull  31.2 30
Bear  38.7 46.5
US$-WSJ 100.3 101.4
3-box rev Bullish%-  76 76
US equity -ICI Fund Flows WeekLate 4.3B
MMF flows Change in $B (11.7B) 10.1B
MargDebt- top (300M) monthly  Jan. 513Bnh
10-yr Tsy yield hi= stock buying 2.5 2.6
2-yr Tsy Yield: Inflation 1.33 1.35
TIP (ETF) Inflation 113.7 113

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