Monday, March 13, 2017


In these divisive times, not only is the country divided as to opinions, but so is Congress. Winston Churchill once said Democracy is the worst form of government - except for all the others.
Looking up the word "Congress", it comes from the Latin congressus, or congredi, with meanings including coming together and coitus (OMG).

Previous columns have mentioned Hegel's use of Dialectic - where Thesis meets Antithesis to form Synthesis, taking the best ideas from both. Perhaps we should rename Congress: COMITY.

Last week saw the stock market pause on its 8th year ann'y after  the Huge Trump rally. Most Indicators stayed the same direction, only worse. Breadth was bad, as Advances fell behind Declines and New Lows rose on the NYSE and Nas. My fave Indicator failed - the McClellan Oscillator falling below -50 (usually a BUY signal on Monday.

Danger signals remain: Large (record) Margin Interest, I.I. Bulls 3:1 over Bears, and Insider Selling is getting attention. A rare INFLOW to MMFs, most since last Dec. Safe money looks to the 2-year Treas, now 1.37%!
Here are the numbers:
Date 3/10/2017 3/3/2017
Indices: DJIA  20902 21005
NAZ  5861 5870
SPX  2372 2383
WklyVolume (Bshs). naz/ny…. 9.2/4.2 10.2/4.8
Specul.Ratio hi=bullish 2.19 2.13
Sentiment: put/call-CBOE  62 61
VIX>50-alltmlow=8.8 11.7 10.9
DeltaMSI-50% MAC crossover 58.5 66.7
Advance/Dec-NYSE.. 678/2426 1438/1652
Weekly Net: -1748 -214
     Cumulative: 173245 174993
Weekly  NYSE hi/low… 162/169 474/75
New Hi's/Low's Nasdaq h/l 236/166 490/132
McClellan  Oscillator -61 -22
McClellanSum .+750/-1000 440 768
Newsletter Inv.Intel -Bull 57.7 4:1.63.1
Surveys-Tues Bear:-5yrs 17.3 16.5
Wed. AAII  -Bull  30 37.9
Bear  46.5 35.4
US$-WSJ 101.4 101.3
3-box rev Bullish%-  76              79nh
US equity -ICI Fund Flows WeekLate 5.8B
MMF flows Change in $B 10.1B (2B)
MargDebt- top (300M) monthly  513Bnh
10-yr Tsy yield hi= stock buying 2.6 2.5
2-yr Tsy Yield: Inflation 1.35 1.3
TIP (ETF) Inflation 113 114.1

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