Monday, February 27, 2017


Since everything Trump is beeyoutiful these days, a possible rate hike by the Fed maybe in the cards for mid-March - a good time to jump into Treasuries at auction (par) if you have some spare cash.
Stocks, however, could be heading for at least a Correction, with consecutive record highs rivaling 1987 !!!!!
Sentiment and Breadth seem equal to the rising market in intensity; Equity flows - funds and ETFs (those traded on exchanges) have been positive since the election (after a brief respite) . They were mostly flowing Out all of 2016 until then.  Margin Debt is spectacularly high -  a danger if stocks start to slide and people/robos have to sell to meet margin calls -Hello!
All else seems stable - Bulls, advance/declines, VIX, but Inflation -as measured by TIPS hit a new high last week. See below:

Date   2/24/2017 2/17/2017
Indices: DJIA  20821 20624
  NAZ  5845 5838
SPX  2367 2351
WklyVolume (Bshs). naz/ny…. 7.3/3.6 9.6/4.3
Specul.Ratio hi=bullish 2.03 2.23
Sentiment: put/call-CBOE  64 57
VIX>50-alltmlow=8.8 11.5 11.5
DeltaMSI-50% MAC crossover 71.9 72.6
Advance/Dec-NYSE.. 1763/1334 1606/1501
Weekly Net: 429 105
     Cumulative: 175207 174776
Weekly  NYSE hi/low… 449/41 504/33
New Hi's/Low's Nasdaq h/l 496/95 555/85
McClellan  Oscillator 2 2
McClellanSum .+750/-1000 812 778
Newsletter Inv.Intel -Bull 61.2 61.8
Surveys-Tues Bear:-5yrs 17.5 17.6
Wed. AAII  -Bull  38.5 33.1
Bear  32.1 32.4
US$-WSJ 101.1 100.9
3-box rev Bullish%-  77nh 76
US equity -ICI Fund Flows WeekLate 8.1B
MMF flows Change in $B 5.1B (2.0B)
MargDebt- top (300M) monthly  490B
10-yr Tsy yield hi= stock buying 2.3 2.4
2-yr Tsy Yield: Inflation 1.15 1.2
TIP (ETF) Inflation 114.9 114.2

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