Monday, February 27, 2017

TAKE A HIKE

Since everything Trump is beeyoutiful these days, a possible rate hike by the Fed maybe in the cards for mid-March - a good time to jump into Treasuries at auction (par) if you have some spare cash.
Stocks, however, could be heading for at least a Correction, with consecutive record highs rivaling 1987 !!!!!
Sentiment and Breadth seem equal to the rising market in intensity; Equity flows - funds and ETFs (those traded on exchanges) have been positive since the election (after a brief respite) . They were mostly flowing Out all of 2016 until then.  Margin Debt is spectacularly high -  a danger if stocks start to slide and people/robos have to sell to meet margin calls -Hello!
All else seems stable - Bulls, advance/declines, VIX, but Inflation -as measured by TIPS hit a new high last week. See below:

Date   2/24/2017 2/17/2017
Indices: DJIA  20821 20624
  NAZ  5845 5838
SPX  2367 2351
WklyVolume (Bshs). naz/ny…. 7.3/3.6 9.6/4.3
Specul.Ratio hi=bullish 2.03 2.23
Sentiment: put/call-CBOE  64 57
VIX>50-alltmlow=8.8 11.5 11.5
DeltaMSI-50% MAC crossover 71.9 72.6
Advance/Dec-NYSE.. 1763/1334 1606/1501
Weekly Net: 429 105
     Cumulative: 175207 174776
Weekly  NYSE hi/low… 449/41 504/33
New Hi's/Low's Nasdaq h/l 496/95 555/85
McClellan  Oscillator 2 2
McClellanSum .+750/-1000 812 778
Newsletter Inv.Intel -Bull 61.2 61.8
Surveys-Tues Bear:-5yrs 17.5 17.6
Wed. AAII  -Bull  38.5 33.1
Bear  32.1 32.4
US$-WSJ 101.1 100.9
3-box rev Bullish%-  77nh 76
US equity -ICI Fund Flows WeekLate 8.1B
MMF flows Change in $B 5.1B (2.0B)
MargDebt- top (300M) monthly  490B
10-yr Tsy yield hi= stock buying 2.3 2.4
2-yr Tsy Yield: Inflation 1.15 1.2
TIP (ETF) Inflation 114.9 114.2

With record numbers of dollars coming out of Money Market Funds, mostly into the crowded trade of short term bonds, anyone who has a minimal knowledge of covered call options and/or an interest in hedging stock market exposure might want to check out: brentleonard.com for an alternative strategy that is low-risk as well as highly rewarding. For those of you wanting more details and actual trading results, a new book is available for $14.95 at Amazon.com: Zero (IN)Tolerance


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