Monday, January 25, 2016

WAR of 1812

As Technicians we are skeptical of small sample size analysis, but the drop of the SPX (S&P 500) to @ the 1812 Support level at least 6 times since Dec. '13 has at least created a Stop, Look, and Listen moment. Whether this is THE bottom or A bottom, is like a Crack patient in Rehab, after the Fed's multi-year "fix" of the supposed free markets.

Most Sentiment Indicators last week returned to normal - Volume, breadth (except for the New Lows to Highs !!!); The McClellan Summation (of its Oscillator readings) dropped below minus 700, a rara avis! Previous lows hit (1514).The AAII Individual Investor Bull/Bear survey worsened, but that comes out midweek, just as the stock market reversed (Oversold, short covering. Invisible Hand).

Here are the numbers:

Date> 2016 1/22/16 1/15/16
Indices: DJIA  16093 15988
NAZ  4591 4488
SPX  1906 1880
WklyVolume (Bshs). naz/ny…. 10.1/5.1 12.2/6.1
Specul.Ratio hi=bullish 1.98 2
Sentiment: put/call-CBOE  63 93
VIX>50-alltmlow=8.8 22.3 27
Advance/Dec-NYSE.. 1888/1299 461/2756
Weekly Net: 589 -2295
     Cumulative: 156627 156038
Weekly  NYSE hi/low… 26/1451 46/1283
New Hi's/Low's Nasdaq h/l 28/1055 33/1025
McClellan  Oscillator -6 -78
McClellanSum .+750/-1000 -770 -535
Newsletter Inv.Intel -Bull 26.8 28.6
Surveys-Tues Bear:-5yrs 36.1 35.7
Wed. AAII  -Bull  21.5 17.9
Bear  48.7 45.6
US$-WSJ 99.5 99
CEOinsider selling disc.
3-box rev Bullish%-  28 27
US equity -ICI Fund Flows (1.6B) WeekLate
MMF flows Change in $B .5B 7.9B
MargDebt- top (300M) monthly  NOV.: 473B
2-yr Tsy Yield: Inflation 0.87% 0.85%
TIP (ETF) Inflation 110 110.2

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