Monday, January 4, 2016


So much for the Santa Claus rally that is supposed to bring Cheer the last week of each year! Other than weakening breadth (advance/decline, new highs/lows) last week, there was no warning of today's 450 point decline on the DJIA.
This does no bode well for the January effect, which is the buying of oversold stocks due to year end profit-taking, loss-taking, etc. In fact, it was reported last week that January has been the worst month of the year for the past decade, with April being the best. Luckily the hedge I've been employing -the TVIX has helped balance out paper losses, up nearly 20% today.
Gold also jumped up, in the face of a stronger dollar, which Conventional Wisdom has getting stronger yet this year, with rising rates - both of which remains to be seen.
Here are the Sentiment numbers:

Date> 2016 1/1/2016 12/24/2015
Indices: DJIA  17426 17552
  NAZ  5007 5048
SPX  2043 2061
WklyVolume (Bshs). naz/ny…. 5.3/2.5** 5.5/3.0*
Specul.Ratio hi=bullish 2.12 1.83
Sentiment: put/call-CBOE  73 59
VIX>50-alltmlow=8.8 18.2 15.7
Advance/Dec-NYSE.. 1128/2090 2853/371
Weekly Net: -962 2482
     Cumulative: 160110 161072
Weekly  NYSE hi/low… 150/93 88/215
New Hi's/Low's Nasdaq h/l 143/183 96/237
McClellan  Oscillator 9 50
McClellanSum .+750/-1000 -20 -137
Newsletter Inv.Intel -Bull 36.7 n/a
Surveys-Tues Bear:-5yrs 29.6 n/a
Wed. AAII  -Bull  25.1 26.4
Bear  23.6 31.5
US$-WSJ 98.7  
CEOinsider selling Finance n/a
3-box rev Bullish%-  56 56
US equity -ICI Fund Flows week delay  (1.4B)
MMF flows Change in $B 16B 11B
MargDebt- top (300M) monthly  473B
2-yr Tsy Yield: Inflation 1.06% 1.01%
TIP (ETF) Inflation 109.7 109.9

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