Tuesday, January 19, 2016


The long Holiday weekend gave the market to catch  its "breadth", after such a lousy start of the year (worst ever!). Such a plunge on heavy Volume does not bode well for the upcoming weeks - it did serve to drive several Sentiment Indicators to extreme levels:
The key one - McClellan Oscillator dropped farther below the, -50 benchmark, to -77;  its concomitant Summation now minus 535. The AAII (Individual Investor) Bears at 45% to only 17% Bulls, a contrary sign. Both Advance/Declines and New Lows to Highs were huge last week.
Finally, the CBOE put/call option ratio was at a very high 93level. 21st C. highs were just above that from Nov. of '08.

Despite many global excuses for a flat 2015 and a poor start this year, the main culprit is probably the Rehab from the Fed's addicting the markets with huge debt buying - the Fed PUT. Sort of like the housewife who said "I cannot be broke - I still have checks left!!"

Here are the numbers:

Date> 2016 1/15/16 1/8/2016
Indices: DJIA  15988 16346
  NAZ  4488 4643
SPX  1880 1922
WklyVolume (Bshs). naz/ny…. 12.2/6.1 11.0/5.3
Specul.Ratio hi=bullish 2 2.08
Sentiment: put/call-CBOE  93 80
VIX>50-alltmlow=8.8 27 27
Advance/Dec-NYSE.. 461/2756 725/2502
Weekly Net: -2295 -1777
     Cumulative: 156038 158333
Weekly  NYSE hi/low… 46/1283 162/665
New Hi's/Low's Nasdaq h/l 33/1025 67/546
McClellan  Oscillator -78 -66
McClellanSum .+750/-1000 -535 -178
Newsletter Inv.Intel -Bull 28.6 34.7
Surveys-Tues Bear:-5yrs 35.7 31.6
Wed. AAII  -Bull  17.9 22.2
Bear  45.6 38.3
US$-WSJ 99 98.5
CEOinsider selling Finance
3-box rev Bullish%-  27 36
US equity -ICI Fund Flows WeekLate (3.9B)
MMF flows Change in $B 7.9B (24.4B)
MargDebt- top (300M) monthly  473B
2-yr Tsy Yield: Inflation 0.85% 0.93%
TIP (ETF) Inflation 110.2 110.4

With record numbers of dollars coming out of Money Market Funds, mostly into the crowded trade of short term bonds, anyone who has a minimal knowledge of covered call options and/or an interest in hedging stock market exposure might want to check out: brentleonard.com for an alternative strategy that is low-risk as well as highly rewarding. For those of you wanting more details and actual trading results, a new book is available for $14.95 at Amazon.com: Zero (IN)Tolerance

Subscribe in a reader


No comments:

Post a Comment