Monday, January 11, 2016


Old timers remember TW3 - "That Was The Week That Was" - from the previous Century. It certainly was for the stock market - the largest first week decline in the 200-year history of U S stocks since the Buttonwood Agreement in the early 1800s.

The question now is - after 7 years of a Fed-led Bull market, how deep does this or any future correction/Bear market go. It looks like a Recession -global and domestic- are in order, and 7.5 years is the usual time between R's. Should one exit or hedge the market? Depends on your timeframe and goals: Retirement or current income.

Short term Sentiment says oversold, looking for at least a pause - Bullish % at a low of 36% (Aug. was 25); CBOE put/call ratio at 80 ( fear) as does the VIX and the AAII Bull/Bear newsletter show. 
More than 50% of the S&P500 stocks are in a Bear market - off 20% from there highs.
Here are the numbers:
Date> 2016 1/8/2016 1/1/2016
Indices: DJIA  16346 17426
  NAZ  4643 5007
SPX  1922 2043
WklyVolume (Bshs). naz/ny…. 11.0/5.3 5.3/2.5**
Specul.Ratio hi=bullish 2.08 2.12
Sentiment: put/call-CBOE  80 73
VIX>50-alltmlow=8.8 27 18.2
Advance/Dec-NYSE.. 725/2502 1128/2090
Weekly Net: -1777 -962
     Cumulative: 158333 160110
Weekly  NYSE hi/low… 162/665 150/93
New Hi's/Low's Nasdaq h/l 67/546 143/183
McClellan  Oscillator -66 9
McClellanSum .+750/-1000 -178 -20
Newsletter Inv.Intel -Bull 34.7 36.7
Surveys-Tues Bear:-5yrs 31.6 29.6
Wed. AAII  -Bull  22.2 25.1
Bear  38.3 23.6
US$-WSJ 98.5 98.7
CEOinsider selling Finance Finance
3-box rev Bullish%-  36 56
US equity -ICI Fund Flows WeekLate (6.0B)
MMF flows Change in $B (24.4B) 16B
MargDebt- top (300M) monthly 
2-yr Tsy Yield: Inflation 0.93% 1.06%
TIP (ETF) Inflation 110.4 109.7

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