Monday, June 29, 2015


Last week the Nasdaq Composite hit a record high; the S&P 500 (SPX) nearly did - yet most Sectors - as measured by ETFs- seem to be in a downslide. Today, behind the Greek tragedy, U S markets also sold off, breaking technical Support levels ( 2080 on the SPX), as well as multi-year trendline Support. This does not bode well for the seasonally weak season - JASON- (July, Aug. Sept. Oct. Nov.).
Carl Icahn , no dummy when it comes to investing, having made over $1B on Netflix alone! calls the market "extremely overheated". Also worrisome are the technical indicators: OBV, or collective On Balance Volume and RSI or Relative Strength Index which topped out last year. Although stock Buybacks were fairly strong in Q2, even they failed to move the markets very much.

Sentiment Indicators, however, tell a different story: as shown below, newsletter Bulls increased in both wire house newsletters and Individual (AAII) surveys; CEO insider selling (legal) was way low - single digit, over buyers. Most other Indicators were quite calm and neutral considering the global situation. Stay tuned!!!

Date> 6/26/2015 6/19/2015
Indices: DJIA  17946 18015
  NAZ  5080 5117
SPX  2101 2109
WklyVolume (Bshs). naz/ny…. 9.2/4.7 9.2/4.8
Specul.Ratio hi=bullish 1.96 1.92
Sentiment: put/call-CBOE  61 62
VIX>50-alltmlow=8.8 14 14
Advance/Dec-NYSE.. 1262/1992 1766/1477
Weekly Net: -730 289
     Cumulative: 165416 166146
Weekly  NYSE hi/low… 312/269 237/241
New Hi's/Low's Nasdaq h/l 401/149 380/146
McClellan  Oscillator -19 0
McClellanSum .+750/-1000 -208 -199
Newsletter Inv.Intel -Bull 51.6 45.5
Surveys-Tues Bear:-5yrs 15.4 16.5
Wed. AAII  -Bull  35.6 25.4
Bear  21.7 34.3
COT:SPX w/w large/small (net)k 9k/(8k) 7k/(51k)
COT:gold  comm.hedg long-short.000 (101k) (76k)
COT:OIL comm.hedg long-short. (335k) (330k)
US$-WSJ 86.7 85.6
CEOinsider selling 9:1 24:1
off.&bd b/s.vs. 10% holder b/s 160/50 160/35
3-box rev Bullish%-  61 62
US equity -ICI Fund Flows WeekDelay (3.5B)
MMF flows Change in $B 2.7B (11.1B)
MargDebt- top (300M) monthly  507B
ETF:mthlyEqty/ Int'l/Bond-$B 1256/519/318
2-yr Tsy Yield: Inflation 0.72% n/a
TIP (ETF) Inflation 111.44 112.61

With record numbers of dollars coming out of Money Market Funds, mostly into the crowded trade of short term bonds, anyone who has a minimal knowledge of covered call options and/or an interest in hedging stock market exposure might want to check out: for an alternative strategy that is low-risk as well as highly rewarding. For those of you wanting more details and actual trading results, a new book is available for $14.95 at Zero (IN)Tolerance

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