Monday, July 6, 2015

It's Greek To Me

From the Cradle of Democracy, with Socrates, Plato and marble-mouth Demosthenes, Greece has not evolved like other democracies. With only 11 million people - three times the population of Puerto Rico (AKA Rich Port!! ; and a territory of Ame-rica -Rich Friend ), despite all the Deadlines, nothing has been resolved. Deadlines just become Headlines for the media. Nearly 50% of their citizens are below the Poverty line - talk about Income Inequality.

It does seem to have some effect on markets, however - Sentiment last week showed a huge increase in CBOE put/call volume. Just as with last Sundays futures of US stocks, there was another drop of 300 points on the DJIA, which was wiped away today, unlike last Monday's 350 decline.

Although investors are still rushing to Index ETFs and funds, they are abandoning dividend-paying stocks, with the hope of interest rates rising in September. The Bullish percent - stocks on a Buy signal- have receded to last October's level. Despite wild swings lately, 2015's first half has been one of the quietest Volatility swings (< 4%) for the 11th time in 60 years for the SPX (500). What bodes well, is that the previous 10 times the stock market double its average for the second half -positive every time! The average was 7%, over the 3.6% usual number until January.

Even with the positive Holiday looming, Breadth was terrible (negative 4 digits), and new highs/lows went negative. As for the Bull/Bears, the AAII individual survey took a wild swing south, reversing the complacent ratio of 35-22 from the prior week. Finally, the monthly figures for margin debt stayed basically the same (unlike China!!), and ETF flows also remained highs - see below:

Date> 7/3/2015 6/26/2015
Indices: DJIA  17730 17946
  NAZ  5009 5080
SPX  2076 2101
WklyVolume (Bshs). naz/ny…. 7.3/3.6 9.2/4.7
Specul.Ratio hi=bullish 2.03 1.96
Sentiment: put/call-CBOE  78 61
VIX>50-alltmlow=8.8 16.8 14
Advance/Dec-NYSE.. 977/2260 1262/1992
Weekly Net: -1283 -730
     Cumulative: 164133 165416
Weekly  NYSE hi/low… 115/514 312/269
New Hi's/Low's Nasdaq h/l 160/255 401/149
McClellan  Oscillator -12 -19
McClellanSum .+750/-1000 -328 -208
Newsletter Inv.Intel -Bull 49.5 51.6
Surveys-Tues Bear:-5yrs 15.4 15.4
Wed. AAII  -Bull  22.6 35.6
Bear  35.1 21.7
COT:SPX w/w large/small (net)k n/a 9k/(8k)
COT:gold  comm.hedg long-short.000 n/a (101k)
COT:OIL comm.hedg long-short. n/a (335k)
US$-WSJ 87.1 86.7
CEOinsider selling n/a 9:1
off.&bd b/s.vs. 10% holder b/s discont. 160/50
3-box rev Bullish%-  57 61
US equity -ICI Fund Flows week delay n/a
MMF flows Change in $B 13B 2.7B
MargDebt- top (300M) monthly  499B
ETF:mthlyEqty/ Int'l/Bond-$B 1268/525/320
2-yr Tsy Yield: Inflation 0.63% 0.72%
TIP (ETF) Inflation 112.13 111.44

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