Monday, June 15, 2015


According to the American Enterprise Inst., 100 years ago only 3% of High School graduates went on to higher education; 50 years ( my era, thanks to an athletic scholarship) it was 25%. Currently, thanks (??) to Uncle Sugar, it is 2/3 of the grads. Unfortunately - per BLS- less than 40% of current jobs need a college degree.

Another surprising stat, thanks to this week's Barron's, despite Income Inequality, U.S. households are now at record levels of prosperity -thanks to recovering stocks and housing prices - this stat from the Fed's Flow of Funds, who arranged the above. Although people who work and have pensions, stock options, 401ks, etc. are benefiting from the stock market rise (tripling since 2009), only 10% of stockholders (think CEOs of startups) own 80% of the stocks. And 15% of mortgage-holders are still under water.

Although it is nice to live in a country with a Benevolent Gov't ( Congress looking out for you {r Vote} ), it seems whenever they put their thumb on the Free Market Scale, bad things happen - Soc. Sec., Medicare, Housing Bubbles, (Stock Markets?), College Loans, ad nauseam. I even wonder about San Francisco's enticements to tech companies causing housing and rents to skyrocket (where do the busboys and teachers live?). The average studio apartment rents now for over $3,000/month.

The Stock market continues to be in  a Zombie trance, albeit wild daily swings, going nowhere (up less than 1% for the year. As seen in the table below, Volume is not that strong - usually from High Freq. traders the first and last hour of the day.  What stands out, however, is the Bull/Bear ratio of the AAII (Individual) inverting to a 20/32 ratio - bullish for stocks. Also notable, the McClellan Summation Index ( collecting advancing versus declining stocks) sank through the zero line. "Bears" watching for the near future. Finally, commodities smart money are still quite short.

Here are last week's numbers:

Date> 6/12/2015 6/5/2015
Indices: DJIA  17898 17849
  NAZ  5051 5068
SPX  2094 2092
WklyVolume (Bshs). naz/ny…. 8.2/3.6 9.0/3.6
Specul.Ratio hi=bullish 2.28 2.5
Sentiment: put/call-CBOE  58 59
VIX>50-alltmlow=8.8 13.8 14.2
Advance/Dec-NYSE.. 1442/1801 1329/1911
Weekly Net: -359 -582
     Cumulative: 165857 166215
Weekly  NYSE hi/low… 212/292 189/228
New Hi's/Low's Nasdaq h/l 307/120 300/140
McClellan  Oscillator -25 -39
McClellanSum .+750/-1000 -150 31
Newsletter Inv.Intel -Bull 47.4 51.5
Surveys-Tues Bear:-5yrs 16.5 15.8
Wed. AAII  -Bull  20.0 27.3
Bear  32.6 24.6
COT:SPX w/w large/small (net)k 6k/(28k) 8k/(16k)
COT:gold  comm.hedg long-short.000 (79k) (108k)
COT:OIL comm.hedg long-short. (325k) (340k)
US$-WSJ 86.3 87.5
CEOinsider selling 18:1 37:1
off.&bd b/s.vs. 10% holder b/s 160/50 .160/40
3-box rev Bullish%-  61 63
US equity -ICI Fund Flows WeekDelay (4.2B)
MMF flows Change in $B (7.7B) 3.1B
MargDebt- top (300M) monthly  APR.: 507B
ETF:mthlyEqty/ Int'l/Bond-$B APR.: 1256/519/318
2-yr Tsy Yield: Inflation 0.73% 0.72%
TIP (ETF) Inflation 111.67 111.4

With record numbers of dollars coming out of Money Market Funds, mostly into the crowded trade of short term bonds, anyone who has a minimal knowledge of covered call options and/or an interest in hedging stock market exposure might want to check out: for an alternative strategy that is low-risk as well as highly rewarding. For those of you wanting more details and actual trading results, a new book is available for $14.95 at Zero (IN)Tolerance

Subscribe in a reader


No comments:

Post a Comment