Monday, June 8, 2015


As mentioned previously most of my stock market analysis is done with Technical Analysis, while still using Fundamental for longer term, Observable yet not Actionable, results. Recently Barron's stated that analysts' estimates of stock earnings missed by 35%; the employment numbers last week missed by 25%. How does this help one make money or, better yet, keep from using it.

Today's market action decline, as expected, bounced up off the S&P 500 level of 2080, where there seems to be quite a bit of Support - i.e., where previous Buyers came in and Sellers stopped selling. After 3 weeks of declines, both in Price and Breadth ( Advances vs. Declines), this week should be closely watched.

The advent of technology has been a boon to Technical Analysis in that it allows megadata to be analyzed as never before - add to that (again as reported in Barron's) HFTs (high frequency traders, or electronics) are moving more and more in "herds", which is what Sentiment and Contrary Opinion is all about. The Trend is your Friend 'til it Bends at the End!

Sentiment Indicators show no reason to panic yet, with the VIX up slightly, but the AAII Bull/Bear surveys close to even; small S&P futures traders are still net short, while large ones are long. The Indicator - Bullish % - a measure of stocks on a Buy signal, is high, but not at extremes yet; looking back at my data from 2000, this is one of the better ones to look at for tops and bottoms.

Here are the numbers:
Date> 6/5/2015 5/29/2015
Indices: DJIA  17849 18010
  NAZ  5068 5070
SPX  2092 2107
WklyVolume (Bshs). naz/ny…. 9.0/3.6 7.2/3.4
Specul.Ratio hi=bullish 2.5 2.12
Sentiment: put/call-CBOE  59 64
VIX>50-alltmlow=8.8 14.2 13.8
Advance/Dec-NYSE.. 1329/1911 965/2259
Weekly Net: -582 -1294
     Cumulative: 166215 166797
Weekly  NYSE hi/low… 189/228 148/132
New Hi's/Low's Nasdaq h/l 300/140 190/142
McClellan  Oscillator -39 -34
McClellanSum .+750/-1000 31 175
Newsletter Inv.Intel -Bull 51.5 48.5
Surveys-Tues Bear:-5yrs 15.8 14.9
Wed. AAII  -Bull  27.3 27.0
Bear  24.6 25.1
COT:SPX w/w large/small (net)k 8k/(16k) 8k/(16k)
COT:gold  comm.hedg long-short.000 (108k) (110k)
COT:OIL comm.hedg long-short. (340k) (345k)
US$-WSJ 87.5 87.3
CEOinsider selling 37:1 27:1
off.&bd b/s.vs. 10% holder b/s .160/40 .160/20
3-box rev Bullish%-  63 64
US equity -ICI Fund Flows WeekDelay (2.9B)
MMF flows Change in $B 3.1B 4.6B
MargDebt- top (300M) monthly  507B
ETF:mthlyEqty/ Int'l/Bond-$B 1256/519/318
2-yr Tsy Yield: Inflation 0.72% 0.61%
TIP (ETF) Inflation 111.4 113.21


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