Today's market action decline, as expected, bounced up off the S&P 500 level of 2080, where there seems to be quite a bit of Support - i.e., where previous Buyers came in and Sellers stopped selling. After 3 weeks of declines, both in Price and Breadth ( Advances vs. Declines), this week should be closely watched.
The advent of technology has been a boon to Technical Analysis in that it allows megadata to be analyzed as never before - add to that (again as reported in Barron's) HFTs (high frequency traders, or electronics) are moving more and more in "herds", which is what Sentiment and Contrary Opinion is all about. The Trend is your Friend 'til it Bends at the End!
Sentiment Indicators show no reason to panic yet, with the VIX up slightly, but the AAII Bull/Bear surveys close to even; small S&P futures traders are still net short, while large ones are long. The Indicator - Bullish % - a measure of stocks on a Buy signal, is high, but not at extremes yet; looking back at my data from 2000, this is one of the better ones to look at for tops and bottoms.
Here are the numbers:
| Date> | 6/5/2015 | 5/29/2015 | |
| Indices: | DJIA | 17849 | 18010 |
| NAZ | 5068 | 5070 | |
| SPX | 2092 | 2107 | |
| WklyVolume (Bshs). | naz/ny…. | 9.0/3.6 | 7.2/3.4 |
| Specul.Ratio hi=bullish | 2.5 | 2.12 | |
| Sentiment: | put/call-CBOE | 59 | 64 |
| VIX>50-alltmlow=8.8 | 14.2 | 13.8 | |
| Advance/Dec-NYSE.. | 1329/1911 | 965/2259 | |
| Weekly Net: | -582 | -1294 | |
| Cumulative: | 166215 | 166797 | |
| Weekly | NYSE hi/low… | 189/228 | 148/132 |
| New Hi's/Low's | Nasdaq h/l | 300/140 | 190/142 |
| McClellan | Oscillator | -39 | -34 |
| McClellanSum | .+750/-1000 | 31 | 175 |
| Newsletter | Inv.Intel -Bull | 51.5 | 48.5 |
| Surveys-Tues | Bear:-5yrs | 15.8 | 14.9 |
| Wed. | AAII -Bull | 27.3 | 27.0 |
| Bear | 24.6 | 25.1 | |
| COT:SPX w/w | large/small (net)k | 8k/(16k) | 8k/(16k) |
| COT:gold comm.hedg | long-short.000 | (108k) | (110k) |
| COT:OIL comm.hedg | long-short. | (340k) | (345k) |
| US$-WSJ | 87.5 | 87.3 | |
| CEOinsider | selling | 37:1 | 27:1 |
| off.&bd b/s.vs. | 10% holder b/s | .160/40 | .160/20 |
| 3-box rev | Bullish%- | 63 | 64 |
| US equity -ICI | Fund Flows | WeekDelay | (2.9B) |
| MMF flows | Change in $B | 3.1B | 4.6B |
| MargDebt- top (300M) | monthly | 507B | |
| ETF:mthlyEqty/ | Int'l/Bond-$B | 1256/519/318 | |
| 2-yr Tsy Yield: Inflation | 0.72% | 0.61% | |
| TIP (ETF) | Inflation | 111.4 | 113.21 |
With record numbers of dollars coming out of Money Market Funds, mostly into the crowded trade of short term bonds, anyone who has a minimal knowledge of covered call options and/or an interest in hedging stock market exposure might want to check out: brentleonard.com for an alternative strategy that is low-risk as well as highly rewarding. For those of you wanting more details and actual trading results, a new book is available for $14.95 at Amazon.com: Zero (IN)Tolerance
Subscribe in a reader
No comments:
Post a Comment