Monday, July 2, 2012


With a nearly 300 point upswing to the EOM, EOQ2, EOH1 (1st half) of 2012, the market salvaged a decent year-to-date with portfolio dressing on the final day. According to Sam Stovall, the markets rise in the second half of the year 80% of the time, especially in an election year - 70% in the 4th Q. Also, if the SPX is higher on Oct.31 than on July 1, the incumbent President gets re-elected.
U. of Michigan Consumer Sentiment survey sank to 73 last week - a multi-month low.

This week's report shows a wild swing in MMF flows from a huge decrease the prior week to a small inflow last week. Near the bottom of the grid below is shown ETF totals (in Millions$) - stocks, Int'l stocks and bonds. These have been almost unchanged lately after the huge bond surge. Margin debt over $300B usually causes a downdraft in the markets.

Here are the numbers:

6/29/2012 6/22/2012
Indices: DJIA  12880 12640
  NAZ  2935 2892

SPX  1362 1335
NASD/NYSE WklyVolume (Bshs). 8.3/4.1 n/a
nasd/nyse Specul.Ratio hi=bullish 2.02 ****
Sentiment: put/call-CBOE  72 64
Barron's VIX>50-alltmlow=8.8 17.1 18.1

Advance/Dec-NYSE.. 2431/742 1813/1363

Weekly Net: 1689 450

     Cumulative: 136028 134339
Weekly  NYSE hi/low 346/147 260/86
New Hi's/Low's Nasdaq h/l 220/172 213/132
McClellan  Oscillator 76 45
McClellan Sum .+750/-1000 208 0
Newsletter Inv.Intel -Bull:tues 38.7 37.2
Surveys Bear:-5yrs 24.7 25.6

AAII  -Bull :wed. 28.7 32.9

Bear  44.4 35.9
COT:Change w/w large/small (net)k (2)/(10) (1)/(6)
CEOinsider selling 13:1 22:1
BalticDryIndex GlobalEcon 924 924
3-box rev Bullish%-  56 55
US equity -ICI Fund Flows 1 wk lag (1.8B)
MMF flows Change in $B 3.4B (20.9B)
MargDebt- top (300M) monthly  279B MAY
ETF:Eqty/Int'l/Bond  million$$ . 650/248/216 MAY
2-yr Tsy Yield: Inflation 0.31% 0.32%

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