Monday, July 30, 2012


If CON is the opposite of PRO, is Congress the opposite of Progress? Set to go on recess August 6, we can expect the markets to excel ( helped by the fact that they usually go on recess during Holidays when people are feeling good about things). Congressional gridlock also seems to help markets, as Congress fails to inhibit them.
Thanks to last week's two day huge rally, the SPX is back in the upward trend channel, with 1420 the current upper band. Changes in the Sentiment Indicators were miniscule, with the AAII Bears increasing  a bit (as did the Bulls!). Mutual Fund equity flows were basically unchanged - the first time since June 1 that they were not negative. Money market flows made a huge reversal from negative $12B to positive $16B.
Here are the numbers:
7/27/2012 7/20/2012
Indices: DJIA  13075 12822
  NAZ  2958 2925

SPX  1385 1362
NASD/NYSE WklyVolume (Bshs). 9.0/4.1 8.4/3.8
nasd/nyse Specul.Ratio hi=bullish 2.19 2.21
Sentiment: put/call-CBOE  68 69
Barron's VIX>50-alltmlow=8.8 16.7 16.3

Advance/Dec-NYSE.. 1893/1269 1679/1470

Weekly Net: 624 209

     Cumulative: 137843 137219
Weekly  NYSE hi/low 411/190 520/102
New Hi's/Low's Nasdaq h/l 138/255 242/164
McClellan  Oscillator 16 1
McClellan Sum .+750/-1000 544 668
Newsletter Inv.Intel -Bull:tues 40.4 43.6
Surveys Bear:-5yrs 26.6 24.5

AAII  -Bull :wed. 28.1 22.2

Bear  43.1 41.8
COT:Change w/w large/small (net)k (2)/(14) 3/(12)
CEOinsider selling 15:01 17:1
BalticDryIndex GlobalEcon

3-box rev Bullish%-  61 61
US equity -ICI Fund Flows 1 wk lag 0
MMF flows Change in $B 16.2B (12.2B)
MargDebt- top (300M) monthly   
ETF:Eqty/Int'l/Bond  million$$ .

2-yr Tsy Yield: Inflation 0.26% 0.21%

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