Monday, July 9, 2012


For those fearful of Friday the 13th, this could be another scary week for the markets.The ECRI (Economic Cycle Research Inst.) has a perfect record of calling Recessions, and says one is on the way here in the U.S. Another very tight correlation mentioned in Barron's is the Citi Economic Surprise Index vs. a stock-less-Treasury rate index, although the correlation to the stock market is non-existent.
Being dropped from the Sentiment Indicator grid is the BDI (Baltic Dry Index) of global shipping - 100% of the largest shipping owners pooh-poohed it as a reliable indicator. The number of AAII Bears has dropped greatly as the Bulls increased; insider selling more than doubled (college funding?), as did the McClellan Summation Index; the Oscillator hovers around +50 - my sell signal.
What remains impressive is the market breadth - if not the DJIA nor SPX - my cumulative Advance/Decline of NYSE stocks continues to make new highs, and number of stocks at new lows are almost nonexistent.
July-August has an 80% chance of rising in election years - but then there is that 20%!!!!
 More blah,blah,blah can be found at:

7/6/2012 6/29/2012
Indices: DJIA  12772 12880
NAZ  2937 2935

SPX  1354 1362
NASD/NYSE WklyVolume (Bshs). 5.7/2.5 8.3/4.1
nasd/nyse Specul.Ratio hi=bullish 2.28 2.02
Sentiment: put/call-CBOE  69 72
Barron's VIX>50-alltmlow=8.8 17.1 17.1

Advance/Dec-NYSE.. 2030/1126 2431/742

Weekly Net: 904 1689

     Cumulative: 136932 136028
Weekly  NYSE hi/low 513/22 346/147
New Hi's/Low's Nasdaq h/l 297/71 220/172
McClellan  Oscillator 47 76
McClellan Sum .+750/-1000 519 208
Newsletter Inv.Intel -Bull:tues 42.5 38.7
Surveys Bear:-5yrs 24.5 24.7

AAII  -Bull :wed. 32.6 28.7

Bear  33.3 44.4
COT:Change w/w large/small (net)k (2)/(10) (2)/(10)
CEOinsider selling 34:1 13:1
BalticDryIndex GlobalEcon discont. 924
3-box rev Bullish%-  60 56
US equity -ICI Fund Flows 1 wk lag (1.5B)
MMF flows Change in $B 3.3B 3.4B
MargDebt- top (300M) monthly  May 279B
ETF:Eqty/Int'l/Bond  million$$ . May 650/248/216
2-yr Tsy Yield: Inflation 0.28% 0.31%

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