Monday, June 25, 2012


A second wave down in a week's time does not bode well for the U.S. markets. In Elliott Wave terms we are in a downtrend since April - lower highs and lower lows; wave IV did not break up through wave I downwave of April 11. Wave II was a FLAT; Wave IV a Zigzig, alternating. Hopefully 1275 on the S&P 500 will hold -being the Support level of Wave III, and also the Resistance levels of last Nov.,Dec.

For more details on the market, Sentiment Indicators analysis, and an egregious plug for the DITM investing strategy (as the optimal one for a flat to down market based on Risk and Reward) please see my column :

 Extremes this week were the McClellan Oscillator, still high at 45; this echoes the record high of my cumulative Advance/Decline line. MMF Outflows doubled last week. Margin Debt (April figures) is getting high but ETF levels - also April: stocks, Int'l, bonds are basically unchanged.

Here are the numbers:

6/22/2012 6/15/2012
Indices: DJIA  12640 12767
  NAZ  2892 2872

SPX  1335 1342
NASD/NYSE WklyVolume (Bshs). n/a 8.2/4.5
nasd/nyse Specul.Ratio hi=bullish **** 1.82
Sentiment: put/call-CBOE  64 78
Barron's VIX>50-alltmlow=8.8 18.1 21.1

Advance/Dec-NYSE.. 1813/1363 1633/1526

Weekly Net: 450 107

     Cumulative: 134339 133889
Weekly  NYSE hi/low 260/86 186/127
New Hi's/Low's Nasdaq h/l 213/132 122/168
McClellan  Oscillator 45 54
McClellan Sum .+750/-1000 0 -286
Newsletter Inv.Intel -Bull:tues 37.2 37.2
Surveys Bear:-5yrs 25.6 26.6

AAII  -Bull :wed. 32.9 34

Bear  35.9 35.8
COT:Change w/w large/small (net)k (1)/(6) 14/(40)
CEOinsider selling 22:1 16:1
BalticDryIndex GlobalEcon 924 877
3-box rev Bullish%-  55 50
US equity -ICI Fund Flows 1 wk lag (3.0B)
MMF flows Change in $B (20.9B) (10.7B)
MargDebt- top (300M) monthly  APR: 299B
ETF:Eqty/Int'l/Bond  million$$ . APR: 697/281/209
2-yr Tsy Yield: Inflation 0.32% 0.29%

With record numbers of dollars coming out of Money Market Funds, mostly into the crowded trade of short term bonds, anyone who has a minimal knowledge of covered call options and/or an interest in hedging stock market exposure might want to check out: for an alternative strategy that is low-risk as well as highly rewarding. For those of you wanting more details and actual trading results, a new book is available for $14.95 at Zero (IN)Tolerance

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