Monday, August 6, 2012


In my July 12 column for the
I wrote about a chart from Ned Davis - NDR Research -  showing stock markets during incumbents' , non- incumbents', and all election years. In the current period - July through October, all three had rises of varying degrees. That is the good news. The divergence comes after Oct.1, when, if Obama loses, the market is due to tank for the remainder of the year. Of course, there are always exceptions!
( tried to paste the chart on this blog but it would not take it - I will attach it to my email alert subscribers).

Merrill Lynch notes that due to the flight to safety (?) of Treasurys, stock investors percentage is the lowest since 1985; also Wall Street strategists, as opposed to analysts, are only recommending 44% in stocks, a 25-year low (56% is usually a BUY signal).

Despite last week's late huge rally, stocks were down slightly for the week - mostly affecting newsletter surveys, which come out Tues. and Wed. Still, the AAII Bull/Bear ratio is still inverted a bit. MMF inflows reversed to outflows; breadth remained strong, but most others were tame.
Here are the numbers:

8/3/2012 7/27/2012
Indices: DJIA  13096 13075
  NAZ  2967 2958

SPX  1390 1385
NASD/NYSE WklyVolume (Bshs). 8.5/4.1 9.0/4.1
nasd/nyse Specul.Ratio hi=bullish 2.07 2.19
Sentiment: put/call-CBOE  69 68
Barron's VIX>50-alltmlow=8.8 15.6 16.7

Advance/Dec-NYSE.. 1754/1383 1893/1269

Weekly Net: 371 624

     Cumulative: 138214 137843
Weekly  NYSE hi/low 517/114 411/190
New Hi's/Low's Nasdaq h/l 176/201 138/255
McClellan  Oscillator 4 16
McClellan Sum .+750/-1000 508 544
Newsletter Inv.Intel -Bull:tues 39.4 40.4
Surveys Bear:-5yrs 27.7 26.6

AAII  -Bull :wed. 30.4 28.1

Bear  34.9 43.1
COT:Change w/w large/small (net)k 2/(3) (2)/(14)
CEOinsider selling 12:01 15:01
BalticDryIndex GlobalEcon discont.
3-box rev Bullish%-  68 61
US equity -ICI Fund Flows 1 wk lag (2.1B)
MMF flows Change in $B (4.0B) 16.2B
MargDebt- top (300M) monthly  JUNE: 284 B  
ETF:Eqty/Int'l/Bond  million$$ . JUNE: 686/258/222
2-yr Tsy Yield: Inflation 0.25% 0.26%

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