Monday, June 11, 2012


The balance of 2012 ( notwithstanding the Mayan Calendar) promises to be fraught with many shocks. Starting with Sunday's Greek election and France's Parliament; the end of June marks the Supreme Court decision (hopefully) on Obamacare; then we have the U.S. elections, lame ducks, and the Fiscal Cliff to worry about.
With a mixed message last week from Uncle Ben, the FOMC meets next week, to possibly do the Twist again (hence this column's Neil Diamond lyric). Echoing the Political chaos are Economic extremes -such as record Treasury rates, plummeting commodity prices - the Baltic Dry Rate dropped last week to triple-digit numbers from quads, signalling a slower global economy.
The McClellan Oscillator - one of my favorites - swung from near minus 50 to plus 50 - a toppy sign; this is based on Advances vs. Declines, which reversed almost exactly from 5:1 Decl. to the opposite ratio. 
The AAII Bull to Bear ratio widened even farther (Bullish FOR the market), and MMFunds flows reversed from innies to outies.

Here are the actual numbers:

6/8/2012 6/1/2012
Indices: DJIA  12668 12118
  NAZ  2898 2747

SPX  1334 1278
NASD/NYSE WklyVolume (Bshs). 8.1/3.9 7.4/3.8
nasd/nyse Specul.Ratio hi=bullish 2.08 1.95
Sentiment: put/call-CBOE  71 76
Barron's VIX>50-alltmlow=8.8 21.2 27

Advance/Dec-NYSE.. 2613/569 588/2578

Weekly Net: 2044 -1990

     Cumulative: 133782 131738
Weekly  NYSE hi/low 164/202 123/210
New Hi's/Low's Nasdaq h/l 88/217 90/222
McClellan  Oscillator 45 -41
McClellan Sum .+750/-1000 -450 -507
Newsletter Inv.Intel -Bull:tues 34 39.3
Surveys Bear:-5yrs 26.6 24.5

AAII  -Bull :wed. 27.5 28

Bear  45.8 42
COT:Change w/w large/small (net)k 3/(37) 2/(30)
CEOinsider selling 10:1 10:1
BalticDryIndex GlobalEcon 877 1012
3-box rev Bullish%-  48 47
US equity -ICI Fund Flows 1 wk lag .8B
MMF flows Change in $B (8.0B) 7.9B
MargDebt- top (300M) monthly 

ETF:Eqty/Int'l/Bond  million$$ .

2-yr Tsy Yield: Inflation 0.29% 0.25%
under Getting Sentimental


With record numbers of dollars coming out of Money Market Funds, mostly into the crowded trade of short term bonds, anyone who has a minimal knowledge of covered call options and/or an interest in hedging stock market exposure might want to check out: for an alternative strategy that is low-risk as well as highly rewarding. For those of you wanting more details and actual trading results, a new book is available for $14.95 at Zero (IN)Tolerance

Subscribe in a reader


No comments:

Post a Comment