Monday, September 7, 2009

LABOR PAINS:

As investors breathlessly await the opening of the post-Labor Day trading, with the unholy combination of Congress and large investors returning to work, despite all the media hoopla about the month of September, last year's Lehman disaster and 9/11, most Sentiment Indicators do seem too bullish on the market to be bullish for the market! Usually media hype is the KOD (Kiss Of Death) to a contrarian (that's why they called it a medium!).

Stretched high are the Bullish % (stocks on a BUY signal) still over 80; Inv.Intell. Bulls, still over 50 -although the AAII ratio is 38:38. Breadth-wise, although the New Highs to Lows is huge, the McClellan charts are neutral. Mutual Fund flows turned to Outflows last week, but a new season, just as in football, begins next week. 


One surprising indicator that caught this writer's attention was the high CEO/Insider selling last week, at 29:1, the highest since August 7, a week before a selloff. Looking back I noticed high readings before just about all minor selloffs (within a downtrend) at dates: 7/31/09; 5/8/09; 4/17/09 - huge in the midst of a large rally; in '08 9/18 , 6/6, and 4/18 presaged at least cessations of the upmove, as did 10/10/07 and 12/14/07. But it sure did miss the big selloff in the first past of this year!!! 


Here are the stats: 




MktSentiment
9/04/2009
Prev. Week
5 Year HI
5 Year LOW





DJIA:
9441
9544
14093
6626
Nasdaq:

2018
2028
2810
1114
S&P 500:

1016
1028
1561
683
CBOE Eq. put/call:
64
58
96-10/08
46-1/03
VIX:

25.3
24.3
90
8.8
McClellan Osc:
-11
-3
108
-100
McClellan Sum:

1114
1345
1568
-1514
Newsletter Surveys




Investors Intel.




Bull:

50.6
51.5
63
22.2
Bear:

24.1
19.8
54.4
16
AAII




Bull:
38.0
34.0
n/a

Bear:
38.0
48.5
n/a

Nova/Ursa Mutual Funds:

1.04
0.95
2.2
0.56
Baltic Dry Index:
2415
2421
11700
663
Bullish %:
81
83
88
2
Insider Corporate Sellers:
29:1
21:1
108:1
2.4:1
Mutual Fund Inflows:
-1.1B
0.4B


ETF Inflows:
-5B
3.8B





www.mktsentiment.blogspot.com is a free weekly display of important contrary opinion statistics, with the disclosure that eventual fees may be paid to the author from readers clicking on the website and/or the small ad at the top of the column. 


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