Market Sentiment - A Contrarian View

This Internet Blog attempts to exhibit the most meaningful Sentiment Indicators that we believe affect the performance of the market in different timeframes; most are Contrarian extremes suggesting that the majority has adopted a certain trend fully at the point at which it is about to reverse. Included are also comments about the Indicators and any other facts or ideas that are pertinent to market action. To Post comments,thanks to Haloscan, just click on "comments" and write away.

Thursday, September 17, 2009

EARLY BLOG:

Just like Jesse Livermore, when things get boring I take off to a seaside resort for a week off, so this issue will be short and early. Indicators remain overbought, especially the Bullish % at a near record 87, but breadth and sentiment do not indicate any cessation of the upside action. Possibly post-quad-witching next week will show some pause, but as Jason Trennert, the palindromic forecaster, says, more inflows are into bond funds than equity - no time for a top.

Here are Thursday's results:



MktSentiment
9/17/2009
Prev. Week
5Yr.HI
LOW





DJIA
9783
9605
14093
6626
Nasdaq
2126
2080
2810
1114
S&P500
1065
1042
1561
683
CBOE Eq.




  put/call
53
60
96-10/08
46-1/03
VIX
23.6
24.1
90
8.8
McClellan Osc
45
35
108
-100
McClelSum
1436
1228
1568
-1514
Newsletter Surveys:
Inv.Intel
22.21
Bull
47.8
48.3
63
22.21
Bear
24.4
23.6
54.4
16
AAII-Bull/Bear
42.0/40.0
37.3/44.0
n/a
Nova/Ursa
MutualFunds
0.89
0.87
2.2
0.56
Baltic Dry Index
2390
2468
11700
663
Bullish%
87
84
88
2
Insider corporate
sellers
n/a
23:1
108:1
2.4:1
Mutual Fund Inflows
.8B
-.5B
ETF Inflows
.4B
-3.7B
VIX Volatility
-10
12
-22
VIX 1-month future
-18
2
-18
VIX 5-month future
-3
8
-7








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