Market Sentiment - A Contrarian View

This Internet Blog attempts to exhibit the most meaningful Sentiment Indicators that we believe affect the performance of the market in different timeframes; most are Contrarian extremes suggesting that the majority has adopted a certain trend fully at the point at which it is about to reverse. Included are also comments about the Indicators and any other facts or ideas that are pertinent to market action. To Post comments,thanks to Haloscan, just click on "comments" and write away.

Contributors

Monday, September 28, 2009

SEPTEMBER SONG:

Back from vacation (briefly), but off again later this week. The blogsite is being tweaked to offer better customer-friendly viewing, so please bear with us. Past and future suggestions welcome.

After a 3-day and away correction the Bull seems to be on track as contrary opinion outvoted the media punsters about a mensis horribilis.

The McClellan Oscillator oscillated between a plus 45 (heralding the correction last week) to a negative 43 this week - an unusual swing. Mutual fund flows were still flat, with most money coming out of MMFs into Bonds in huge amounts. Longer term, there was a huge number of Insider Selling by key employes last week: 54:1. Bullish per cent is still toppy at record highs, Bulls/Bears ratios are mixed, with the AAII reversing to the Bear majority last week. And new highs were tremendous at 635 vs. 5 new lows - either a sign of strong breadth, or a toppy indication. Time will tell.

Here are the numbers:


MktSentiment
9/25/2009
Prev. Week
5Yr. HI
5Yr. LOW





DJIA:
9665
9783
14093
6626
Nasdaq:
2090
2126
2810
1114
S&P500:
1044
1065
1561
683
CBOE Eq.




  put/call:
61
53
96-10/08
46-1/03
VIX:
25.6
23.6
90
8.8
McClellan Osc:
-43
45
108
-100
McClelSum:
1426
1436
1568
-1514
Newsletter Surveys




Inv.Intel



22.21
Bull:
46.7
47.8
63
22.21
Bear:
24.4
24.4
54.4
16
AAII-Bull/Bear:
39.1/44.6
42.0/40.0
n/a

Nova/Ursa:




MutualFunds:
0.86
0.89
2.2
0.56
Baltic Dry Index:
2163
2390
11700
663
Bullish%:
86
87
88
2
Insider corporate




sellers:
54:1
n/a
108:1
2.4:1
Mutual Fund Inflows:
-.3B
.8B


ETF Inflows:
1.5B
4B


VIX Volatility:
-4
-10
12
-22
VIX 1-month future:
-16
-18
2
-18
VIX 5-month future:
-4
-5
8
-7











www.mktsentiment.blogspot.com is a free weekly display of important contrary opinion statistics, with the disclosure that eventual fees may be paid to the author from readers clicking on the website and/or the small ad at the top of the column.
Readers can request being added to an e-mail distribution list alert by sending address to leonbrnt@aol.com without fear of selling their names to spammers or contracting viruses.
 

posted by Brent Leonard | 1:21 PM