Much of the material presented was about trader behavior and risk, especially by GGU Professor and one-time partner of Martin Pring's management group, Bruce Fraser echoing the thought that everything we learn in life is diametrically opposed to what you need to do in successful trading - making the tough decisions (similar to what Congress and the government is currently facing).
Although the overall feeling ( Wyckoff, pt.& figure, etc.) was Bullish, few of the Indicators are now reflecting that: the newsletter surveys - the Inv.Intelligence Bull/Bear ratio is an incredulous over 50 to under 20, although we see the AAII switching within 2 weeks from + 18 to - 14 inversion (see below) in direct contrast.
Other indications of a very strong market needing a pause include the Bullish % creeping up to the record high at 83% of stocks on a BUY signal and the NY new highs at 247 to...2. All else is rather tepid, for now.
Volume remains a mystery with the dark pools off the radar, 5 low price stocks commanding incredible volume (30% of the NYSE alone).
Encyclopedist Thomas Bulkowski even sees the failure rate of the most common chart formations rising recently, albeit from a very low level over 20 years.
Here are the statistics:
| MktSentiment | 8/28/2009 | Prev. Week | 5 Year HI | 5 Year LOW |
| DJIA: | 9544 | 9505 | 14093 | 6626 |
| Nasdaq: | 2028 | 2020 | 2810 | 1114 |
| S&P 500: | 1028 | 1026 | 1561 | 683 |
| CBOE Eq. put/call: | 58 | 55 | 96-10/08 | 46-1/03 |
| VIX: | 24.3 | 25.0 | 90 | 8.8 |
| McClellan Osc: | -3 | 25 | 108 | -100 |
| McClellan Sum: | 1345 | 1302 | 1568 | -1514 |
| Newsletter Surveys | ||||
Investors Intel. | ||||
Bull: | 51.5 | 48.3 | 63 | 22.2 |
Bear: | 19.8 | 23.1 | 54.4 | 16 |
AAII | ||||
Bull: | 34.0 | 51.0 | n/a | |
Bear: | 48.5 | 33.0 | n/a | |
| Nova/Ursa Mutual Funds: | 0.95 | 0.84 | 2.2 | 0.56 |
| Baltic Dry Index: | 2421 | 2468 | 11700 | 663 |
Bullish %: | 83 | 81 | 88 | 2 |
| Insider Corporate Sellers: | 21:1 | 16:1 | 108:1 | 2.4:1 |
| Mutual Fund Inflows: | 0.4B | 0 | ||
| ETF Inflows: | 3.8B | -1B |
www.mktsentiment.blogspot.com is a free weekly display of important contrary opinion statistics, with the disclosure that eventual fees may be paid to the author from readers clicking on the website and/or the small ad at the top of the column.
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With record numbers of dollars coming out of Money Market Funds, mostly into the crowded trade of short term bonds, anyone who has a minimal knowledge of covered call options and/or an interest in hedging stock market exposure might want to check out: brentleonard.com for an alternative strategy that is low-risk as well as highly rewarding. For those of you wanting more details and actual trading results, a new book is available for $14.95 at Amazon.com: Zero (IN)Tolerance
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