Monday, March 28, 2005


As expected/hoped, for the third bi-monthly time, the DJIA has tested the 10,400 Support area after advancing there in Nov. That Wall of Worry has some pretty strong rocks to climb over, with the added threat of 1/2 point rate hike in May (per the Fed Funds Futures). As with most Contrarians, however, Ned Davis is noting that we are getting close to extreme pessimism (if the SPX can stay above 1163), and that a nice April rally should ensue. Current Earnings Warnings are higher than normal (2.3 vs 2 to 1) - another rock.
My Sentiment extremes this week include a negative New High to New Low ratio - the first since the August '04 lows which included a Selling Climax of 1:14 ratio; The McClellan Oscillator bounced off its Buy-signal low of -100 last week ending at -77, and the Summation went negative. Invest.Intell. Bears zoomed up to 27.8 a recent high of fear, and the AAII survey inverted to 23.2/41.9, Bulls to Bears. The Bullish Percent, however, advanced down another Pt.& in its Sell column - a Buy signal is still a ways off.
Corporate cash rose to a record 14%, and some OTC stocks are announcing dividends (AMAT, LRSX, NVLS in techland) in the quest for what to do with all this money?

With record numbers of dollars coming out of Money Market Funds, mostly into the crowded trade of short term bonds, anyone who has a minimal knowledge of covered call options and/or an interest in hedging stock market exposure might want to check out: for an alternative strategy that is low-risk as well as highly rewarding. For those of you wanting more details and actual trading results, a new book is available for $14.95 at Zero (IN)Tolerance

Subscribe in a reader


No comments:

Post a Comment