Monday, March 21, 2005


There is a "Perfect Storm" of reasons why the Bull market is over, including the 3-year cycle, the end of the seasonal Nov.-Apr. half year and Ira/Pension contribution period ending, Old highs revisited and failed in besting; valuations, China's renewed surge of output, and rising rates/ lowering dollar. And don't forget higher oil/gas which not only impacts the consumer, but the food/goods transporting costs.
However, we could be in an oversold state at the 10,600 Dow level (surely at 10,400 Support). At least so says the put/call ratios at a 70 matching Jan.21's Bullish number, and before that the October bottom at 79; the ISE call/put number is also weakening to 131 (lowest since Sept.'s 99). The ratio-adjusted McClellan Oscillator is at a near-bottoming level of -60 and the Rydex Nova/Ursa number goes back to Jan. levels. Surveys are benign, except for the AAII being dead even at 32.5 apiece for Bulls and Bears, a rarity. Even the Specialist shorting has been backing off a tad.

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