Monday, March 7, 2005


Several Indices hit 4-year highs ( the SPX has retraced 71% of its loss, while a recent - April '03 birthdate- Rydex's ETF, RSP, or equal weighted S&P 500 has hit an all time high). We might assume this Bull is getting tired, and for several good reasons: We are nearing the end of the 6-month seasonally positive cycle with IRA contributions; banging on 11,000 Dow and 2100 Nasdaq; rising oil, declining dollar, employment participation declining with layoffs up 40% year over year, and interest rates climbing. Not only that, astrologists warn of the Bearish April 8 equinox and pullbacks after March's option expiry on the 18th.
Although Barron's Michael Santoli reminds us that at the very top in March '00, the Investors' Intelligence ratio was 53/27, now the Bulls over Bears is 54/22, although that is not exceptionally high, nor are most other Sentiment gauges currently. Momentum seems to be surging with 619 new highs over 57 new lows, 2273 advances in the NYSE over 1225 declines, a nice 62 CBOE Equity put/call ratio and only a small few Indicators nearing overbought conditions: Bullish percent, Rydex Nova/Ursa and the Market Vane survey. We would stay the course and hope for Volume breakouts.

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