Monday, July 24, 2017


One of my readers last week requested that I update and explain the Sentiment Indicators I post weekly on this site. Over the past decade I have deleted and added a few. None of these Contrary Opinion numbers are actionable by themselves, but taken together can warn of speculative emotions.
The Indices are self-explanatory w/w ( week over week); Volume is Nasdaq vs. NYSE, a speculative signal; the CBOE equity Put to Call ratio and VIX are fear guides.
A new Delta MACD crossover is a bullish ( above 50) number , similar to Bullish %, or stocks on a BUY signal; Breadth is signalled by Advance/Decline, along with cumulative -now near record highs; also New Highs and Lows on the NYSE and Nasdaq.
The McClellan Oscillator ( and cum. Summation) is also a chart of advance/declines in a formula. The AAII and Investors' Intelligence Bull/Bear ratios are contrary - the I I become harder to locate recently ( I might switch back to Rydex.
Margin Debt remains HUGE, what with low rates; fund flows measure public $$, what with the ETF monster sucking up much in Index funds - some coming from Index Mutual Funds!!! Finally, the 2 and 10- year Treas. rates can be used to forecast a Recession - for over a Century we have never had a 10-year period where a Recession did not happen, and it always had an inverted Yield Curve (backwardation, not Contango) -the spread is lessening recently, as is the 3-month to 10-year TSY.
TIPs measure Inflation which at present is nonexistent.
Here are the recent numbers:

Date 7/21/2017 7/14/17
Indices: DJIA  21580 21637
NAZ  6387 6312
SPX  2472 2459
WklyVolume (Bshs). naz/ny…. 8.6/3.7 8.6/3.8
Specul.Ratio hi=bullish 2.32 2.26
Sentiment: put/call-CBOE  58 61
VIX>50-alltmlow=8.8 9.4 9.5
DeltaMSI-50% MAC crossover 69.9 58.9
Advance/Dec-NYSE.. 1881/1182 2174/902
Weekly Net: 699 1272
     Cumulative: 179896 179197
Weekly  NYSE hi/low… 431/48 323/83
New Hi's/Low's Nasdaq h/l 393/122 282/153
McClellan  Oscillator 18 29
McClellanSum .+750/-1000 727 594
Newsletter Inv.Intel -Bull na 50
Surveys-Tues Bear:-5yrs na 18.6
Wed. AAII  -Bull  36 28.2
Bear  26 29.6
US$-WSJ 94 95.1
3-box rev Bullish%-  75 73
US equity -ICI Fund Flows weeklate (2.1B)
MMF flows Change in $B (9.9B) 0
MargDebt- top (300M) monthly  540B
10-yr Tsy yield hi= stock buying 2.24 2.33
2-yr Tsy Yield: Inflation 1.34 1.36
TIP (ETF) Inflation 113.6 113

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