Monday, July 17, 2017


According to Tom Bowley of Stockcharts, for the past 20 years (1998 on) the worst 3 months of the year have been - July, Aug., and Sept. Averaging around 50% of the time being up for the month. Although we keep hitting new highs, Volume and Momentum seem to have caught the Summer malaise.
Sentiment seems to also be on Hold, with Extremes being the margin interest (down slightly from mo/mo record highs), and the Institutions (Wire house newsletters) wildly Bullish (3 : 1) , while us amateurs - AAII are dead even (Bulls and Bears. The yield Curve - 10-yr. Treas. vs. 3-month - is the lowest since 2006-8 when we had the sliding down market into the Recession.
Here are the numbers:

Date   ####### 7/7/2017
Indices: DJIA  21637 21414
  NAZ  6312 6153
SPX  2459 2425
WklyVolume (Bshs). naz/ny…. 8.6/3.8 6.6/3.0*
Specul.Ratio hi=bullish 2.26 2.2
Sentiment: put/call-CBOE  61 63
VIX>50-alltmlow=8.8 9.5 11.2
DeltaMSI-50% MAC crossover 58.9 63.3
Advance/Dec-NYSE.. 2174/902 1418/1630
Weekly Net: 1272 -212
     Cumulative: 179197 177925
Weekly  NYSE hi/low… 323/83 229/96
New Hi's/Low's Nasdaq h/l 282/153 164/107
McClellan  Oscillator 29 -11
McClellanSum .+750/-1000 594 560
Newsletter Inv.Intel -Bull 50 52.5
Surveys-Tues Bear:-5yrs 18.6 18.8
Wed. AAII  -Bull  28.2 29.6
Bear  29.6 29.9
US$-WSJ 95.1 96
3-box rev Bullish%-  73 73
US equity -ICI Fund Flows weeklate (11.6B)
MMF flows Change in $B 0 4.7B
MargDebt- top (300M) monthly  540B May
10-yr Tsy yield hi= stock buying 2.33 2.39
2-yr Tsy Yield: Inflation 1.36 1.4
TIP (ETF) Inflation 113 112.4

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