Monday, May 15, 2017


Markets continue to make new highs almost every day and week, despite all the global calamities from elections, firings, to rockets. In a recent excellent webinar by Option King Larry McMillan, he not only analyzes the VIX Indicator and its misuse, but opines that if the S&P 500 breaks above the May 9 closing high of 2401 and closes twice above that, the market should resume its uptrend. FANG stocks are also propelling the NASDAQ to new highs, although Inflation Adjusted, it is not quite the case.It broke 5000 in March of 2000. BTW - today's close of the SPX was 2402 !!!

Sentiment Indicators remain mostly the same except for Mutual fund flows out instead of in last week; The I.I. Bull/Bear ratio stayed at its extreme of over 3:1 (normally a dangerous complacent signal). It was also noted that the NYSE Advance/Decline breadth numbers are not the best to use, as 30% of NYSE Volume nowadays is in ETFs, plus closed end funds, preferred stocks, etc.

Here are the numbers:

Date   5/12/2017 5/5/2017
Indices: DJIA  20896 21006
  NAZ  6121 6100
SPX  2390 2399
WklyVolume (Bshs). naz/ny…. 9.6/4.1 9.9/4.4
Specul.Ratio hi=bullish 2.34 2.25
Sentiment: put/call-CBOE  61 66
VIX>50-alltmlow=8.8 10.4 10.5
DeltaMSI-50% MAC crossover 55.4 60.3
Advance/Dec-NYSE.. 1352/1626 1548/1535
Weekly Net: -274 13
     Cumulative: 176539 176813
Weekly  NYSE hi/low… 325/92 427/137
New Hi's/Low's Nasdaq h/l 393/200 429/196
McClellan  Oscillator -23 0
McClellanSum .+750/-1000 545 609
Newsletter Inv.Intel -Bull 58.7 58.5
Surveys-Tues Bear:-5yrs 17.3 17.9
Wed. AAII  -Bull  32.7 38.1
Bear  30.2 29.9
US$-WSJ 99.2 98.6
3-box rev Bullish%-  71 71
US equity -ICI Fund Flows WeekLate (4.3B)
MMF flows Change in $B (6.2B) 1.6B
MargDebt- top (300M) monthly  528B March
10-yr Tsy yield hi= stock buying 2.3 2.4
2-yr Tsy Yield: Inflation 1.3 1.31
TIP (ETF) Inflation 113.8 113.7

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