Monday, May 1, 2017


After back to back 250 point up days on the DJIA, markets on the S&P 500 and Nasdaq closed at new highs last week. Technically, the Momentum studies bode well for more highs to follow near term - just about everyone agrees. Not saying a Correction is not possible.
Since WWII (or before) there has never been a decade without a Recession - and if we have one in the next four years (usually @ the Zero year of the Decile cycle) it should be a doozy, with the outstanding debt. Even Margin Debt rocketed to new highs at $537B due to low rates; when they go up ....
as the numbers below show, Breadth was positive last week - new highs, Advances over Declines, and MMF $ flows (money markets) reversed from Out to In bigtime - retail investors are IN.

Date   4/28/2017 4/21/2017
Indices: DJIA  20940 20584
  NAZ  6047 5910
SPX  2384 2352
WklyVolume (Bshs). naz/ny…. 9.4/4.8 8.1/4.1
Specul.Ratio hi=bullish 1.96 1.98
Sentiment: put/call-CBOE  65 66
VIX>50-alltmlow=8.8 10.8 14.6
DeltaMSI-50% MAC crossover 59.9 50.4
Advance/Dec-NYSE.. 1901/1175 2055/1009
Weekly Net: 726 1046
     Cumulative: 176800 176074
Weekly  NYSE hi/low… 544/71 295/61
New Hi's/Low's Nasdaq h/l 561/138 239/144
McClellan  Oscillator 8 8
McClellanSum .+750/-1000 620 488
Newsletter Inv.Intel -Bull 54.7 51.9
Surveys-Tues Bear:-5yrs 17.9 18.3
Wed. AAII  -Bull  38.1 25.7
Bear  31.7 37
US$-WSJ 99.0 99.8
3-box rev Bullish%-  74 71
US equity -ICI Fund Flows WeekLate (2.7B)
MMF flows Change in $B 15.4B (16.9B)
MargDebt- top (300M) monthly  537B MARCH
10-yr Tsy yield hi= stock buying 2.3 2.2
2-yr Tsy Yield: Inflation 1.27 1.17
TIP (ETF) Inflation 115.2 114.7

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