Monday, February 20, 2017


What comes first - the departure of the current Fed Head or the inevitable Recession, which could be a doozy? For over  a Century, we've had an "R" around the zero year of the decennial cycle, plus or minus a year or so - last one was 2008, after which the Fed dropped interest rates to...Zero and propped up the markets - stock and real estate.
Worries coming up this year (contrary to Janet's hemming and hawing, which talking heads posit that move computer-driven markets) are: NAFTA LA VISTA (coined by Dimitra D. in Barron's this week) , the Border Tax, CalExit, the North Korea "nucular" threat.
Stocks crawled up higher to new records and the VIX (Volatility) stayed low - which unlike high IV could stay that way for a long while ( more from Bill Luby's option column in Barron's). Threats to the market are: Extreme Margin Interest, length of the Bull market, $20T national debt, and some tech valuations.
What could possibly go Rong?
Here are the numbers:
Date 2/17/2017 2/10/2017
Indices: DJIA  20624 20269
NAZ  5838 5734
SPX  2351 2316
WklyVolume (Bshs). naz/ny…. 9.6/4.3 9.3/4.1
Specul.Ratio hi=bullish 2.23 2.27
Sentiment: put/call-CBOE  57 67
VIX>50-alltmlow=8.8 11.5 10.9
DeltaMSI-50% MAC crossover 72.6 68.5
Advance/Dec-NYSE.. 1606/1501 1974/1115
Weekly Net: 105 859
     Cumulative: 174776 174671
Weekly  NYSE hi/low… 504/33 379/44
New Hi's/Low's Nasdaq h/l 555/85 423/110
McClellan  Oscillator 2 27
McClellanSum .+750/-1000 778 686
Newsletter Inv.Intel -Bull 61.8 62.7
Surveys-Tues Bear:-5yrs 17.6 16.7
Wed. AAII  -Bull  33.1 35.8
Bear  32.4 27.7
US$-WSJ 100.9 100.7
3-box rev Bullish%-  76 71
US equity -ICI Fund Flows WeekLate .8B
MMF flows Change in $B (2.0B) (3.2B)
MargDebt- top (300M) monthly 
10-yr Tsy yield hi= stock buying 2.4 2.4
2-yr Tsy Yield: Inflation 1.2 1.2
TIP (ETF) Inflation 114.2 114.2

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