Monday, August 29, 2016


I'm thinking of becoming a columnist again (after, Marina Times, TSAA Review, - it is so easy: just say The Fed is thinking of raising the interest rates, maybe in Sept, or Dec.!; Hillary and Trump are disagreeable again!!!

Despite well-meaning attempts to satisfy everyone's wellbeing with uncharted DEBT - gov't, personal, student loan, etc. the last 3 regimes have encouraged gov't misdirected spending - even George W (who thought Roe vs. Wade was how to cross the Potomac River). Pensions and retirement accounts getting zero interest cannot possibly repay beneficiaries down the line, as people live longer and the workforce dwindles. The almighty Dollar has sunk from 100 pennies to @ 6 in the past 50 years and promises to end up in wheelbarrows as the Weimar Mark did.

The current market, albeit in vacation time, is dead in the water as to direction. Last week's Sentiment Indicators are exactly like the week before. The McClellan Oscillator, due to a weaker Advance/Decline week, prompted Monday's rally, sinking almost to my minus 50  Buy signal. If it doesn't work, we are in deep trouble!

The Calm before the storm scares me - the time of year, the aforementioned Fed and Election, DEBT.
Barron's Option column notes the great complacency of low Volatility in options - a good time to get Hedged!!
Date>   8/26/2016 8/19/2016
Indices: DJIA  18395 18552
  NAZ  5218 5238
SPX  2169 2184
WklyVolume (Bshs). naz/ny…. 7.9/3.7 8.2/3.9
Specul.Ratio hi=bullish 2.14 2.1
Sentiment: put/call-CBOE  67 58
VIX>50-alltmlow=8.8 13.7 11.3
DeltaMSI-50% MAC crossover 73% 73%
Advance/Dec-NYSE.. 1413/1707 1666/1447
Weekly Net: -294 219
     Cumulative: 172310 172604
Weekly  NYSE hi/low… 409/29 410/25
New Hi's/Low's Nasdaq h/l 364/75 383/81
McClellan  Oscillator -35 -19
McClellanSum .+750/-1000 878 992
Newsletter Inv.Intel -Bull 56.7 56.2
Surveys-Tues Bear:-5yrs 20.2 20
Wed. AAII  -Bull  29.4 35.6
Bear  29.6 26.4
US$-WSJ 94.7 94.5
3-box rev Bullish%-  76 76
US equity -ICI Fund Flows WeekLate (5B)
MMF flows Change in $B 24.6 (34.9B)
MargDebt- top (300M) monthly  447B
10-yr Tsy yield hi= stock buying 1.63% 1.58%
2-yr Tsy Yield: Inflation 0.85% 0.75%
TIP (ETF) Inflation 116.5 116

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