Monday, September 5, 2016


Labor Day - the day no one works ! As Art Hoppe  said in the S F Chronicle 50 years ago, a day invented by unions to make sure people work less, get paid more. It seems to be "working", as the number of people in the workforce is at a decades low, in spite of the gov't increasing at all levels - the S F gov't staff is 30,000, or 1 for every 300 residents.

Despite the many fears for the stock market success - Election, calendar weakness (Sept.& Oct.), Brexit, etc.- some things are positive. The Barron's Option column reports very low Volatility in options ( a sign of complacency); fund flows in Bear funds have sold, making for more cash available to buy, while Bull funds are flat. Wall of Worry: EVERYONE who is anyone is Bearish for at least a Correction: Jim Grant, Bill Gross, Icahn, Soros, Jim Rogers, S. Pomboy e.g.

Despite the second longest Flat market since '09, the fear of a rate hike has diminished short term. But this is the first Bull driven, not by earnings, but Fed easing, of the 5 in 40 years. NIRP ??

Breadth remains strong (New Highs), but Volume weak; bigtime $$ left MMFs to MUF (mutual);
 monthly Margin debt increased, almost to all time highs - from April '15.

I'll be vacationing (zigging while the masses have zagged already) for the next few weeks.

Here are the Sentiment numbers:
Date>   9/2/2016 8/26/2016
Indices: DJIA  18492 18395
  NAZ  5249 5218
SPX  2179 2169
WklyVolume (Bshs). naz/ny…. 7.7/4.1 7.9/3.7
Specul.Ratio hi=bullish 1.88 2.14
Sentiment: put/call-CBOE  65 67
VIX>50-alltmlow=8.8 12 13.7
DeltaMSI-50% MAC crossover 70% 73%
Advance/Dec-NYSE.. 2086/1028 1413/1707
Weekly Net: 1058 -294
     Cumulative: 173368 172310
Weekly  NYSE hi/low… 404/34 409/29
New Hi's/Low's Nasdaq h/l 362/75 364/75
McClellan  Oscillator -1 -35
McClellanSum .+750/-1000 788 878
Newsletter Inv.Intel -Bull 55.9 56.7
Surveys-Tues Bear:-5yrs 20.6 20.2
Wed. AAII  -Bull  28.6 29.4
Bear  31.5 29.6
US$-WSJ 95.9 94.7
3-box rev Bullish%-  76 76
US equity -ICI Fund Flows WeekLate (4.5B)
MMF flows Change in $B (10.5B) 24.6
MargDebt- top (300M) monthly  475B
10-yr Tsy yield hi= stock buying 1.60% 1.63%
2-yr Tsy Yield: Inflation 0.79% 0.85%
TIP (ETF) Inflation 115.5 116.5

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