Despite today's strong rally - caused I'm sure by the McClellan Oscillator nearing minus 50 last week- the U S stock market has had a long run, based on the Fed's largesse of Zero rates for a decade now. This has caused, as I borrow from Barron's this week - stocks driven by TINA FOMO - These Is No Alternative, and Fear Of Missing Out!. The economy and earnings are not correlated to the strength of the market since March '09, without at least some correction. Many aged veterans are calling for such in this weak semi-annual cycle - May through October.
Several breadth and momentum Indicators have topped out the last week or two - the new Delta MSI and Bullish % - stocks on Buy signals; the McClellan Summation from its 4-digit reading; and money flows from equity MUFs into MMFs and some ETFs.
Still mixed, as shown below, are the Bull/Bear surveys, Inflation - by the 2-year Treas. and TIPS (at a recent high.
| Date> | 5/13/2016 | 5/6/2016 | |
| Indices: | DJIA | 17535 | 17740 |
| NAZ | 4717 | 4736 | |
| SPX | 2046 | 2057 | |
| WklyVolume (Bshs). | naz/ny…. | 8.8/4.6 | . 9.5/5.0 |
| Specul.Ratio hi=bullish | 1.91 | 1.9 | |
| Sentiment: | put/call-CBOE | 84 | 81 |
| VIX>50-alltmlow=8.8 | 15 | 14.7 | |
| DeltaMSI-50% | MAC crossover | 70% | 79% |
| Advance/Dec-NYSE.. | 1361/1793 | 1413/1759 | |
| Weekly Net: | -432 | -346 | |
| Cumulative: | 165521 | 165953 | |
| Weekly | NYSE hi/low… | 445/80 | 365/64 |
| New Hi's/Low's | Nasdaq h/l | 137/201 | 155/168 |
| McClellan | Oscillator | -46 | -30 |
| McClellanSum | .+750/-1000 | 922.0 | 1064.0 |
| Newsletter | Inv.Intel -Bull | 39.2 | 40.2 |
| Surveys-Tues | Bear:-5yrs | 21.6 | 21.7 |
| Wed. | AAII -Bull | 20.4 | 22.3 |
| Bear | 31.3 | 30.3 | |
| US$-WSJ | 94.6 | 93.8 | |
| 3-box rev | Bullish%- | 70 | 72 |
| US equity -ICI | Fund Flows | WeekLate | (12.9B) |
| MMF flows | Change in $B | 5.7B | 1.7B |
| MargDebt- top (300M) | monthly | MARCH | 446B |
| 2-yr Tsy Yield: Inflation | 0.75% | 0.73% | |
| TIP (ETF) | Inflation | 115.2 | 114.7 |
With record numbers of dollars coming out of Money Market Funds, mostly into the crowded trade of short term bonds, anyone who has a minimal knowledge of covered call options and/or an interest in hedging stock market exposure might want to check out: brentleonard.com for an alternative strategy that is low-risk as well as highly rewarding. For those of you wanting more details and actual trading results, a new book is available for $14.95 at Amazon.com: Zero (IN)Tolerance
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