Monday, May 16, 2016


In deference to the annual ATOC - Amgen Tour of California this week , I ask "Why do bicycles fall over?" - "Because they are two-tired!!"
Despite today's strong rally - caused I'm sure by the McClellan Oscillator nearing minus 50 last week- the U S stock market has had a long run, based on the Fed's largesse of Zero rates for a decade now. This has caused, as I borrow from Barron's this week - stocks driven by TINA FOMO - These Is No Alternative, and Fear Of Missing Out!. The economy and earnings are not correlated to the strength of the market since March '09, without at least some correction. Many aged veterans are calling for such in this weak semi-annual cycle - May through October.
Several breadth and momentum Indicators have topped out the last week or two - the new Delta MSI and Bullish % - stocks on Buy signals; the McClellan Summation from its 4-digit reading; and money flows from equity MUFs into MMFs and some ETFs.
Still mixed, as shown below, are  the Bull/Bear surveys, Inflation - by the 2-year Treas. and TIPS (at a recent high.
Date>   5/13/2016 5/6/2016
Indices: DJIA  17535 17740
  NAZ  4717 4736
SPX  2046 2057
WklyVolume (Bshs). naz/ny…. 8.8/4.6 .       9.5/5.0
Specul.Ratio hi=bullish 1.91 1.9
Sentiment: put/call-CBOE  84 81
VIX>50-alltmlow=8.8 15 14.7
DeltaMSI-50% MAC crossover 70% 79%
Advance/Dec-NYSE.. 1361/1793 1413/1759
Weekly Net: -432 -346
     Cumulative: 165521 165953
Weekly  NYSE hi/low… 445/80 365/64
New Hi's/Low's Nasdaq h/l 137/201 155/168
McClellan  Oscillator -46 -30
McClellanSum .+750/-1000 922.0 1064.0
Newsletter Inv.Intel -Bull 39.2 40.2
Surveys-Tues Bear:-5yrs 21.6 21.7
Wed. AAII  -Bull  20.4 22.3
Bear  31.3 30.3
US$-WSJ 94.6 93.8
3-box rev Bullish%-  70 72
US equity -ICI Fund Flows WeekLate (12.9B)
MMF flows Change in $B 5.7B 1.7B
MargDebt- top (300M) monthly  MARCH 446B
2-yr Tsy Yield: Inflation 0.75% 0.73%
TIP (ETF) Inflation 115.2 114.7

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