Monday, March 28, 2016


After a huge market runup for 5 weeks, stocks look a bit tired, breadth-wise (advances and declines). The McClellan Summation Index is dropping from its near-highs (@ 1000), and its Indicator has dropped from +60 to minus 5 in the past week; the NYA Index of New York stocks is making lower highs and lows after its all-time high last summer.

OTOH (on the other hand) my newly found Indicator, the Delta MSI is showing a high (69) Bullish number as is the Bullish % - stocks on a buy signal. So the picture, once again, is mixed.

Duke U. ( Ducks recent adversary in the NCAAs) Finance school - Fuqua - say that fast 3 times- reports that a poll of CFOs say the minimum wage hike will: cut hiring (75% polled), result in layoffs (75%), cut into employe benefits (66%) and hike prices (50%). 1/3 of these Finance Officers also see a Recession in 2016.

Here are last week's sentiment #s:

Date> 2016 3/24/16* 3/18/2016
Indices: DJIA  17515 17602
  NAZ  4773 4795
SPX  2035 2049
WklyVolume (Bshs). naz/ny…. 6.4/3.4* 9.6/6.3
Specul.Ratio hi=bullish 1.88 1.52
Sentiment: put/call-CBOE  82 66
VIX>50-alltmlow=8.8 14.7 14
DeltaMSI-50% MAC crossover 69% 61%
Advance/Dec-NYSE.. 1055/2113 2271/907
Weekly Net: -1058 1364
     Cumulative: 162566 163624
Weekly  NYSE hi/low… 166/27 248/37
New Hi's/Low's Nasdaq h/l 101/96 146/147
McClellan  Oscillator -5 60
McClellanSum .+750/-1000 990 917
Newsletter Inv.Intel -Bull 47.4 44.4
Surveys-Tues Bear:-5yrs 27 30.3
Wed. AAII  -Bull  33.8 30
Bear  23.7 26.9
US$-WSJ 96.1 95.1
3-box rev Bullish%-  76 76
US equity -ICI Fund Flows weekLate (.2B)
MMF flows Change in $B (14.8B) (40B)
MargDebt- top (300M) monthly  447B
2-yr Tsy Yield: Inflation 0.89% 0.84%
TIP (ETF) Inflation 113.2 113.6

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