Monday, March 7, 2016


As of this morning I am again the proud Great Uncle Brent (aka GUB) as Hendrik arrived a bit ahead of schedule. Joy tops all Sentiment Indicators for now.

However, for the stock market, last week was unremarkable. Causing a bit of notice was a breath of Inflation, as measured by a slight nudge of the TIP, well below its Nov. 2012 high of 123. Barron's advises playing Vanguards ETF VTIP rather than the TIP one which has a CPI component as well as coupons. Still early for that, but the 2 year Treas. also jumped up a bit as well.
MMFs (money markets) inflows  have been doubling lately (for the fourth week); equity mutual funds also went positive for only the second time since Sept. 2015, although most went into ETFs from these open end funds.
Both stocks and commodities have been on a positive roll lately - stocks since the downswing in Jan; commodities since 2011. Neither seem to have grounds for a sustained move - more like short covering. Time will tell.  Gold seems more likely, in lieu of global events.

Here are the numbers:

Date> 2016 3/4/2016 2/26/2016
Indices: DJIA  17006 16639
  NAZ  4717 4590
SPX  2000 1948
WklyVolume (Bshs). naz/ny…. 10.0/6.0 8.9/4.9
Specul.Ratio hi=bullish 1.66 1.82
Sentiment: put/call-CBOE  61 65
VIX>50-alltmlow=8.8 16.9 19.8
Advance/Dec-NYSE.. 2723/481 2358/833
Weekly Net: 2242 1525
     Cumulative: 161277 159035
Weekly  NYSE hi/low… 186/57 155/120
New Hi's/Low's Nasdaq h/l 108/128 90/209
McClellan  Oscillator 104 76
McClellanSum .+750/-1000 324 -139
Newsletter Inv.Intel -Bull 36.4 34.7
Surveys-Tues Bear:-5yrs 34.3 35.7
Wed. AAII  -Bull  32 31.2
Bear  29.3 31.4
US$-WSJ 97.2 98.1
3-box rev Bullish%-  71 57
US equity -ICI Fund Flows weekLate 2.1B
MMF flows Change in $B 26.0B 15.1B
MargDebt- top (300M) monthly  445B
2-yr Tsy Yield: Inflation 0.86% 0.80%
TIP (ETF) Inflation 112.6 112.4

With record numbers of dollars coming out of Money Market Funds, mostly into the crowded trade of short term bonds, anyone who has a minimal knowledge of covered call options and/or an interest in hedging stock market exposure might want to check out: for an alternative strategy that is low-risk as well as highly rewarding. For those of you wanting more details and actual trading results, a new book is available for $14.95 at Zero (IN)Tolerance

Subscribe in a reader


No comments:

Post a Comment