Sunday, October 4, 2015


Shame on you; fool me twice - shame on ME!
This Volatile stock market is getting harder and harder to figure - especially with Fundamental data coming out every day. Veteran analysts such as Laszlo Birinyi and now Jeremy Seigel say the market is going to scream upwards for the next couple of years - but it is hard to see that right now with both Technicals and Fundamentals looking so weak. Take your pick.

Mid- October is what we call a CMJ - Critical Market Juncture most years. Just look back at 2008, 2001, 2002, 1987, 1929, They always resulted in nice V-Spikes, but one never knows when the downslope ends.

Last week ended the 3rd Quarter, the worst in 4 years, with a huge rally - but it could be deceptive. Market breadth was still negative, with Advances below Declines, despite Friday's huge rally - the New Lows to Highs were amazing - on the NYSE they were 30 to 1 !!!, 10:1 on the Nasdaq.

On the positive side, short term, the newsletter surveys (Bulls and Bears) were inverted in favor of BEARS, which is a contrary sign. Weekly Volume was also large - an important Technical confirmation signal which main media seems to ignore (CNBC, Bloomie).


Date> 10/2/2015 9/25/2015
Indices: DJIA  16472 16314
  NAZ  4707 4686
SPX  1951 1931
WklyVolume (Bshs). naz/ny…. 11.3/5.4 9.6/4.6
Specul.Ratio hi=bullish 2.1 2.1
Sentiment: put/call-CBOE  79 72
VIX>50-alltmlow=8.8 20.9 23.6
Advance/Dec-NYSE.. 1444/1805 1057/2179
Weekly Net: 361 -1122
     Cumulative: 158635 158274
Weekly  NYSE hi/low… 26/795 53/453
New Hi's/Low's Nasdaq h/l 61/618 94/347
McClellan  Oscillator 21 -10
McClellanSum .+750/-1000 -452 -365
Newsletter Inv.Intel -Bull 24.7 26
Surveys-Tues Bear:-5yrs 35.1 30.2
Wed. AAII  -Bull  28.1 32.1
Bear  39.9 28.7
US$-WSJ 88.5 88.9
CEOinsider selling     .30:1 .50:1
3-box rev Bullish%-  31 36
US equity -ICI Fund Flows week delay  0
MMF flows Change in $B 8.4B 14B
MargDebt- top (300M) monthly  AUG: 473B
ETF:mthlyEqty/ Int'l/Bond-$B JUL: 1275/509/321
2-yr Tsy Yield: Inflation 0.59% 0.70%
TIP (ETF) Inflation 111.7 110.1

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