Monday, September 28, 2015


So this is why they call this time of year "FALL". First week of Autumn, Lunar equinox - Red Moon. Where's the FED when we need them now? Shorting the market?

Time to hedge the downside for stocks, or bail out crying like John Boehner. Even CalSTRS, the second biggest pension fund is selling 12% of its 55% in stocks to hedge Risk, and buy Treasurys (???). Even the best analysts are mixed in future direction: Laszlo Birinyi sees the S&P 500 - 80% of stocks- up 50% in 2 years; Sam Stoval of Standard and Poor's says a bit further down (to Support) then up.

At a TSAA (Technical Securities) Saturday at GGUniv. 50-year veteran Peter Eliades, is calling for an ugly BEAR market, with the May 21 high in the S&P 500 of 2130 a long term Cycle top. Like most cycle theory, market turns (up or down) are Observable but not Actionable with real money!!

The Sentiment table below shows some changes on Indicators that have not been too reliable recently - Commodity Traders, etc. Last week shows indecision in the newsletter surveys; Insider trading picked up again, after a hiatus recently: from single digit selling (to 1 buyer) up to 50:1. Money Market cash reversed again into buying. Finally, Breadth (advances over declines, new highs over new lows) reversed week over week bigtime.
Here are the numbers.

Date> 9/25/2015 9/18/2015
Indices: DJIA  16314 16384
  NAZ  4686 4827
SPX  1931 1958
WklyVolume (Bshs). naz/ny…. n/a 9.6/5.9
Specul.Ratio hi=bullish n/a 1.63
Sentiment: put/call-CBOE  72 81
VIX>50-alltmlow=8.8 23.6 22.3
Advance/Dec-NYSE.. 1057/2179 1771/1459
Weekly Net: -1122 312
     Cumulative: 158274 159396
Weekly  NYSE hi/low… 53/453 73/260
New Hi's/Low's Nasdaq h/l 94/347 143/191
McClellan  Oscillator -10 28
McClellanSum .+750/-1000 -365 -377
Newsletter Inv.Intel -Bull 26 26.8
Surveys-Tues Bear:-5yrs 30.2 26.8
Wed. AAII  -Bull  32.1 33.3
Bear  28.7 29.1
US$-WSJ 88.9 87.9
CEOinsider selling .50:1        .7:1
3-box rev Bullish%-    43
US equity -ICI Fund Flows week delay  (3.2B)
MMF flows Change in $B 14B (16.2B)
MargDebt- top (300M) monthly  473B AUG.
ETF:mthlyEqty/ Int'l/Bond-$B 1275/509/321 JULY
2-yr Tsy Yield: Inflation 0.70% 0.69%
TIP (ETF) Inflation 110.1 111.2

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