Monday, October 26, 2015


After a much-needed stock market correction in August and September, October is looking pretty good; the sharp upthrusts Thurs. and Fri. broke into current Resistance, despite overbought Breadth (Advances over Declines). Rather startling: the S&P 500 was up 1% Friday, and HALF the rise was just 3 stocks (thanks to Capitalization-weighting, not Price-weighting). Google (Alphabet), Microsoft and Amazon. Other reasons are probably short-covering of a high number of Bears, and the failure of the Gov't to issue some short term Treas. due to the debt ceiling dilemma - cash lying around.

After spending (wasting?) $$ on SPY Puts to hedge for the fearful October, I now use the TVIX which "should" rise if markets tank, although I expect the year end to be positive. Cannot be too careful with retirement $$.

Despite last week's Volatility, most Sentiment Indicators are right in the medium area - see below

Date> 10/23/2015 10/16/2015
Indices: DJIA  17646 17215
  NAZ  5031 4886
SPX  2075 2033
WklyVolume (Bshs). naz/ny…. 9.4/4.5 8.5/4.4
Specul.Ratio hi=bullish 2.09 1.93
Sentiment: put/call-CBOE  71 73
VIX>50-alltmlow=8.8 14.4 15
Advance/Dec-NYSE.. 1933/1299 1753/1477
Weekly Net: 634 276
     Cumulative: 162045 161411
Weekly  NYSE hi/low… 228/136 131/74
New Hi's/Low's Nasdaq h/l 225/211 153/141
McClellan  Oscillator 39 55
McClellanSum .+750/-1000 373 187
Newsletter Inv.Intel -Bull 37.5 36.5
Surveys-Tues Bear:-5yrs 31.3 31.2
Wed. AAII  -Bull  34.8 34.1
Bear  24 27.1
US$-WSJ 88 87
CEOinsider selling     .26:1 .106:1
3-box rev Bullish%-  63 53
US equity -ICI Fund Flows week delay  (1.4B)
MMF flows Change in $B 1B 11.0B
MargDebt- top (300M) monthly  454B SEPT
ETF:mthlyEqty/ Int'l/Bond-$B 1202/465/324 AUG.
2-yr Tsy Yield: Inflation 0.65% 0.61%
TIP (ETF) Inflation 111.3 111.3

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