Monday, September 21, 2015


Autumn is here - the worst part of the Stock market Annual cycle, which I've (TM) called JASON - July through November. Over several decades the difference is humungous between the two semi-annual cycles, with November-May up big and its complement period actually Negative. So I try to stay out of any new market positions (the trade used to be in Bonds for 6 months).Now I just Hedge what I have.

Technician Alert: this Wednesday is named GANN Day, for W.D. Gann, who opined that the 23rd of Sept. is the Autumnal Equinox, , most frequent day for market Tops, per Barron's. Seems a little late this year.

Barron Waste: Since March of this year I've tracked over 50 of Barron's super picks !! - Exactly half are down so far, with major moves also equal both ways - the S&P 500 is down only 30 points from March, despite current correction. Can you say "Dartboard?"

Sentiment-wise: Very few extremes in my Indicators, despite the Volatility (VIX); the CBOE put to call ratio is high (Bullish FOR the market) at 81; Breadth is mixed - Advance/Declining stocks slightly up, New Highs to Lows negative, with Volume high.

Newsletters of Bulls to Bears went from a rare inverted state to about equal. Insider selling is very weak, but MMFs selling (money market) is large. Next week should be stock mutual fund monthly stats.
Here are the numbers:
Date> 9/18/2015 9/11/2015
Indices: DJIA  16384 16433
NAZ  4827 4822
SPX  1958 1961
WklyVolume (Bshs). naz/ny…. 9.6/5.9 7.2/3.6
Specul.Ratio hi=bullish 1.63 2
Sentiment: put/call-CBOE  81 73
VIX>50-alltmlow=8.8 22.3 23.2
Advance/Dec-NYSE.. 1771/1459 1808/1409
Weekly Net: 312 399
     Cumulative: 159396 159084
Weekly  NYSE hi/low… 73/260 45/217
New Hi's/Low's Nasdaq h/l 143/191 95/146
McClellan  Oscillator 28 15
McClellanSum .+750/-1000 -377 -522
Newsletter Inv.Intel -Bull 26.8 25.7
Surveys-Tues Bear:-5yrs 26.8 27.9
Wed. AAII  -Bull  33.3 34.7
Bear  29.1 35.0
COT:SPX w/w large/small (net)k 17k/(86k) 15k/(95k)
COT:gold  comm.hedg long-short.000 (33k) (56k)
COT:OIL comm.hedg long-short. (239k) (227k)
US$-WSJ 87.9 88.3
CEOinsider selling        .7:1 .12:1
off.&bd b/s.vs. 10% holder b/s
3-box rev Bullish%-  43 36
US equity -ICI Fund Flows (3.2B) week delay 
MMF flows Change in $B (16.2B) (15.6B)
MargDebt- top (300M) monthly  505B
ETF:mthlyEqty/ Int'l/Bond-$B 1250/514/314
2-yr Tsy Yield: Inflation 0.69% 0.71%
TIP (ETF) Inflation 111.2 111.0

With record numbers of dollars coming out of Money Market Funds, mostly into the crowded trade of short term bonds, anyone who has a minimal knowledge of covered call options and/or an interest in hedging stock market exposure might want to check out: for an alternative strategy that is low-risk as well as highly rewarding. For those of you wanting more details and actual trading results, a new book is available for $14.95 at Zero (IN)Tolerance

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