Monday, February 16, 2015

President's Day

As shown by the numbers below, the SPX (S&P 500)  hit an all-time high, with the DJIA 30 close behind. The Nasdaq hit a 14-year high, just off the 2000 bubble. Breadth, as measured by advance/declines, was also strong, with my cumulative A/D at a new high as well.
Lots of Insider Selling, a little early for tax time, but Insider Buying also picked up, so the ratio was 38:1 sellers - not a record but pretty strong. $1.1B in selling, with half of it in Consumer Sectors.
MMFs had a net Gain for the first time since Jan. 2. Gold commercials still are selling bigtime, but not at the record level of last week.
The Bull looks strong, as new highs mean no previous sellers to dump getting even. The Wyckoff model, a West Coast favorite, shows a possible UTAD ( upthrust after distribution) which could be a fakeout before going lower. But IMO, so much global unrest, 50% of securities inflows in the U.S. is coming from outside our borders, for safety.

Here are the numbers:

Date> 2/13/2015 2/6/2015
Indices: DJIA  18019 17824
NAZ  4893 4744
SPX  2097 2055
WklyVolume (Bshs). naz/ny…. 9.1/3.9 10.3/4.5
Specul.Ratio hi=bullish 2.33 2.29
Sentiment: put/call-CBOE  62 64
VIX>50-alltmlow=8.8 14.7 17.3
Advance/Dec-NYSE.. 2119/1143 2262/1002
Weekly Net: 976 1260
     Cumulative: 166421 165445
Weekly  NYSE hi/low… 339/63 486/111
New Hi's/Low's Nasdaq h/l 259/125 207/185
McClellan  Oscillator 32 16
McClellanSum .+750/-1000 485 414
Newsletter Inv.Intel -Bull:tues 52.5 49
Surveys Bear:-5yrs 15.2 16.3
AAII  -Bull :wed. 40 35.5
Bear  20.3 32.4
COT:SPX w/w large/small (net)k 3k/(7k) 1k/0k
COT:gold  comm.hedg long-short.000 (171k) (203k)
CEOinsider selling .38:1-1.1M .50:1
off.&bd b/s.vs. 10% holder b/s .160:50 .160:35
3-box rev Bullish%-  71 68
US equity -ICI Fund Flows WeekDelay 3.5B
MMF flows Change in $B 4.3B (16.4B)
MargDebt- top (300M) monthly  n/a
ETF:mthlyEqty/ Int'l/Bond-$B
2-yr Tsy Yield: Inflation 0.65% 0.65%
TIP (ETF) Inflation 112.66 113.96

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