Monday, February 2, 2015

January DEFECT

For the fourth time in five weeks, the markets ended negative, making obvious the January Barometer prognostication for a great year dubious. Any technician knows that the only guarantee of a projection, based on a model of Januarys from 1928, is that the market will probably not exactly replicate the model - however, the market does rhyme!
The negative January model shows a sharp decline in January !, followed by a shallower on in Feb; an up  March, then down into June. Whereupon the market rises until the year end, with about a 2% gain. This is based on 33 DOWN Januarys, versus 54 UPs, and 17 MORE than 5% UPs! Still, it beats Zero % MMFs and CDs!

New Highs on the NYSE broke up through the 600 level, whereas the NASDAQ stayed negative. Once again, commercial shorts on GOLD set a new Record High! Over 200. This does not bode well for future gold, as the Dollar gets stronger.

Insider Selling by Sector continues to fall, in ratio to Buying - at 14:1, with Media by far the largest Buyers! Spectrum?? Selling was pretty much across the board. A comment posted to my blog asked when the 235:1 ratio occurred, so I checked. It was May 2011; I also saw that previous highs were all in April - 2009,  2010, and April 2011 - indicating perhaps selling to give to the IRS.

Technically, things look pretty bleak, short term - two of my fellow Adjunct Prof.s from GGU noted the possible (?) H&S Top formation - yet to be confirmed by a Neckline breech or Volume; I see a possible Symmetrical triangle (positive ?) short term, if the DJIA and SPX bounce what appears to be Support levels at 17,100 and 1990.

EFTs, or Exchange Traded Funds, which have been expanding for awhile ( especially Index ETFs for 9 years now), finally reported this week (see below), as Int'l and Bond flows stayed the same.

Today's market (Feb.2) is showing at least a temporary ceasing of stocks at their Support levels, as well as Oil, Dollar, and Gold trends. Time will tell. I like three days' closes for confirmation.
Here are the numbers:

Date> 1/30/2015 1/23/2015
Indices: DJIA  17164 17672
  NAZ  4635 4757
SPX  1995 2051
WklyVolume (Bshs). naz/ny…. 9.9/4.4 7.3/3.3
Specul.Ratio hi=bullish 2.25 2.21
Sentiment: put/call-CBOE  71 62
VIX>50-alltmlow=8.8 21 16.7
Advance/Dec-NYSE.. 1216/2032 2083/1152
Weekly Net: -816 931
     Cumulative: 164185 165001
Weekly  NYSE hi/low… 616/245 516/165
New Hi's/Low's Nasdaq h/l 216/257 174/243
McClellan  Oscillator -11 16
McClellanSum .+750/-1000 297 257
Newsletter Inv.Intel -Bull:tues 53.1 49
Surveys Bear:-5yrs 16.3 17.4
AAII  -Bull :wed. 44.2 37.1
Bear  22.4 30.8
COT:SPX w/w large/small (net)k 3k/13k 4k/12k
COT:gold  comm.hedg long-short.000 (206k) (178k)
CEOinsider selling .18:1
off.&bd b/s.vs. 10% holder b/s .160:35 .160:30
3-box rev Bullish%-  62 64
US equity -ICI Fund Flows WeekDelay .9B
MMF flows Change in $B (2.5B) (1.0B)
MargDebt- top (300M) monthly  n/a
ETF:mthlyEqty/ Int'l/Bond-$B 1260/415/296
2-yr Tsy Yield: Inflation 0.45% 0.49%
TIP (ETF) Inflation 114.17

With record numbers of dollars coming out of Money Market Funds, mostly into the crowded trade of short term bonds, anyone who has a minimal knowledge of covered call options and/or an interest in hedging stock market exposure might want to check out: for an alternative strategy that is low-risk as well as highly rewarding. For those of you wanting more details and actual trading results, a new book is available for $14.95 at Zero (IN)Tolerance

Subscribe in a reader


No comments:

Post a Comment