Monday, February 23, 2015

New Highs

The DJIA and SPX made new highs last week after the Presidential Holiday, with the Nasdaq a few points below its 15-year bubble high of 5049.

The upmove during the week regressed most Indicators to their mean, even Gold commercials shorted less, although still high, as gold makes a 7-week low.

My favorite Bull/Bear survey - the AAII individual investor poll- skewed to the Bull (complacent) side, as the two week totals showed 35% to 40 to 47 last week; Bears slid from 32% to 20, down to 17.
Here are the numbers:

Date> 2/20/2015 2/13/2015
Indices: DJIA  18140 18019
  NAZ  4955 4893
SPX  2110 2097
WklyVolume (Bshs). naz/ny…. 6.7/3.0 9.1/3.9
Specul.Ratio hi=bullish 2.23 2.33
Sentiment: put/call-CBOE  56 62
VIX>50-alltmlow=8.8 14.3 14.7
Advance/Dec-NYSE.. 1679/1543 2119/1143
Weekly Net: 136 976
     Cumulative: 166557 166421
Weekly  NYSE hi/low… 332/37 339/63
New Hi's/Low's Nasdaq h/l 263/84 259/125
McClellan  Oscillator 24 32
McClellanSum .+750/-1000 556 485
Newsletter Inv.Intel -Bull:tues 56.6 52.5
Surveys Bear:-5yrs 34.1 15.2
AAII  -Bull :wed. 47 40
Bear  17.9 20.3
COT:SPX w/w large/small (net)k 4k/(9k) 3k/(7k)
COT:gold  comm.hedg long-short.000 (144k) (171k)
CEOinsider selling .42:1 .38:1-1.1M
off.&bd b/s.vs. 10% holder b/s .160:15 .160:50
3-box rev Bullish%-  74 71
US equity -ICI Fund Flows WeekDelay 0
MMF flows Change in $B (9.0B) 4.3B
MargDebt- top (300M) monthly  na na
ETF:mthlyEqty/ Int'l/Bond-$B 1260/415/296
2-yr Tsy Yield: Inflation 0.64% 0.65%
TIP (ETF) Inflation 112.48 112.66

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