Monday, November 10, 2014


The V-Spike is a common Technical Analysis signal, especially when occurring with massive Volume, as the recent (finally) expected October decline of nearly 10%  - a correction area. Since then it has been onward and upward, and I expect more of the same. More commentary (!) at:

Most remarkable of the Sentiment Indicators last week were: New Highs in the DJIA, SPX, Utils and Transports - and the NAS is nearing its record of the 2000 Bubble of 5049. There seems to be a conflict of the Bull/Bear views - the CBOE is high (fear) in the 60s, while complacency reigns in the Surveys - AAII and Inv. Intell., which come out mid-week.

Most remarkable was the Sector line of Insider Selling AND Buying last week - both huge, but the ratio was down to 24 to 1 Sellers (see below). The monthly stats of ETF flows finally came out for Sept. - down in all three categories.
Here are the numbers:

Date> 11/7/2014 10/31/2014
Indices: DJIA  17573 17390
  NAZ  4632 4630
SPX  2031 2018
WklyVolume (Bshs). naz/ny 9.7/3.9 10.0/4.2
Specul.Ratio hi=bullish 2.49 2.38
Sentiment: put/call-CBOE  63 62
VIX>50-alltmlow=8.8 13.1 14
Advance/Dec-NYSE.. 1798/1451 2440/813
Weekly Net: 347 1627
     Cumulative: 163761 163414
Weekly  NYSE hi/low 540/172 441/156
New Hi's/Low's Nasdaq h/l 337/192 332/182
McClellan  Oscillator 53 84
McClellanSum .+750/-1000 275 -5
Newsletter Inv.Intel -Bull:tues 54.6 47
Surveys Bear:-5yrs 15.1 16.3
AAII  -Bull :wed. 52.7 49.4
Bear  15.1 21.1
COT:SPX w/w large/small (net)k 5k/3k (4k)/(6k)
COT:gold  comm.hedg long-short.000 (55k) (99k)
CEOinsider selling 24:1 29:1
off.&bd b/s.vs. 10% holder b/s 160:45 160:25
3-box rev Bullish%-  65 60
US equity -ICI Fund Flows WeekDelay 1.1B
MMF flows Change in $B 5.9B 6.1B
MargDebt- top (300M) monthly  464B
ETF:mthlyEqty/ Int'l/Bond-$B 1120/432/276
2-yr Tsy Yield: Inflation 0.50% 0.49%

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